The only thing to worry about with Monfils is fatigue. He played five matches during his title run in Auckland, and his first round match against Mpetshi Perricard was very physical. That’s a lot for an older player, and we saw him out of breath and doing his classic hands-on-knees pose against Altmaier. But some of that is just play, and he tends to exploit his mobility and athleticism even when he looks like he’s running on empty. Additionally, the match against Altmaier only lasted two hours and 20 minutes. This victory in two sets should help him recharge his batteries a little for this one.
It’s also worth mentioning that these two played in this same tournament in 2019, when Fritz won 6-3, 6-7 (8), 7-6 (6), 7-6 (5). Of course, Fritz is a much better player today than he was back then. But Monfils is also playing better to start 2025 than he was in 2019.
I’m not sure this match will be that different from the last. These two aren’t exactly servebots, but they’ll rack up catches. So when we get late in sets and get to tiebreakers, I like Monfils’ chances of avoiding a straight-set loss.
Choice: More than 3.5 sets (-121)
