your bill will change!

On January 16, 2025, the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) announced an average reduction of 15% in EDF’s regulated tariffs (often called EDF Blue Tariff) from February 1, 2025. This change concerns 24 million households. Objective: to enable households to benefit from a gradual return to normal on the energy markets, after the price crisis experienced in recent months. Conversely, 11 million households will see their bill increase by 9%!

Good news for 24.6 million households…

From February 1, 2025, a large majority of electricity consumers (or nearly 24.6 million households) will see their bills drop. This development is explained by the fall in energy prices on the markets, thus allowing the government and certain suppliers to offer more attractive regulated EDF prices. According to the CRE, the reduction in EDF’s regulated tariff will be 15% on average, despite a simultaneous increase in several taxes dedicated to financing the electricity system.

Although the reduction could have reached 20 to 30% without this increase in taxation, this reduction remains significant for those who, until now, were exposed to the effects of rising costs over the period 2023-2024. In practice, it is estimated that a household with an average consumption of 8.5 MWh (heating, hot water and cooking) could save several hundred euros per year thanks to this tariff revision.

…but an increase of 9% for 11 million households

On the other hand, not everyone will benefit from this improvement. No less than 11 million households subscribe to “fixed price” electricity offers. While such a choice may seem reassuring in periods of instability (tariffs are frozen for a specific period), it does, however, prevent you from benefiting from future reductions in EDF’s regulated tariff. From February 1, 2025, these contracts will experience an increase of around 9% according to Selectra calculations, mainly linked to increased tax and regulatory burdens.

What concrete savings can be expected?

On average, a French household subscribed to the regulated rate will be able to save €190 including tax on average with the 15% reduction in the regulated rate. In practice, the amount of savings may vary significantly depending on the subscribed power and annual consumption. Several concrete cases illustrate the impact of the reduction in the regulated price:

• A couple living in an apartment of 2 people, consuming 2400 kWh per year, will see their annual bill increase from approximately €756 including tax to €649 including tax, i.e. €107 savings.
• A family of 3 people in an apartment, consuming 8500 kWh, will save almost €389 (€2,252 including tax in 2024 compared to €1,863 including tax in 2025).
• A household of 4 people in a house, with a consumption of 14,000 kWh per year, will reduce its bill by around €651 including tax each year.

In addition, the CRE (Energy Regulatory Commission) has also proposed to gradually eliminate the “base” option for subscribed powers between 9 kVA and 36 kVA from 2026. This measure, which aims to make consumers more independent and responsible for their consumption, will be of particular interest to households equipped with “smart” devices (programmable water heaters, automated management of cooking ranges, etc.).

Why does the price of electricity vary so much?

Historically, the price of electricity in France is subject to revision twice a year: in February and in August. Several factors come into play to explain upward or downward movements:

• The cost of supply on wholesale markets;
• Tariffs for using the public network, often called TURPE;
• The various taxes (excise, CTA and VAT) whose rate may fluctuate depending on the situation.

If the current trend is downward for EDF’s regulated tariff, the government is taking the opportunity to reintroduce or increase certain taxes which had been reduced during the energy price crisis.

Result: the real drop does not reach the “theoretical” levels put forward by certain sector experts. Nevertheless, for many households, the reduction forecast for February 2025 will remain appreciable.

To escape the 9% increase affecting electricity offers at a fixed price, simply choose an offer indexed to the regulated EDF tariff. In other words, if the regulated price decreases, the bill decreases in a correlated manner. The competitiveness of indexed offers will be greatly strengthened from February 2025.

Subscribing to a new supplier (or returning to EDF’s “Blue Tariff”) is a simple and free process: it is done by telephone or online, without the slightest power cut and without having to replace your meter. It may therefore be wise to compare the different offers available on the market, before the new prices come into force in February 2025.

Here is the list of electricity offers which will benefit from the 15% reduction in the regulated tariff:

Simulations carried out for a domestic consumption of 6000 kWh per year and a power of 6 kVA in Lyon. Learn more about our Selectra Score.