the essential
After many hopes that never came to fruition, a peace agreement seems very close in Gaza. Negotiations are underway in Qatar between Israel and Hamas and could lead to the signing of a ceasefire between the two belligerents. Progress of the negotiations, content of the agreement, consequences… Decryption.
After 15 months of a brutal war which left tens of thousands dead and completely destroyed the Gaza Strip, the dawn of a truce is looming, with the outlines of a ceasefire on the horizon. -fire which are becoming clearer. A final round of negotiations is due to begin on Tuesday January 14 in Qatar between Israel and Hamas.
These discussions bring together, on the one hand, the heads of Israeli intelligence agencies, American envoys and the Prime Minister of Qatar and on the other, Qatari and Egyptian mediators and Hamas, who are trying to “finalize the last details” according to a source close to the negotiations.
Washington hopes to conclude the agreement within the week but refuses to promise a positive outcome. And for good reason, this is not the first time that the Biden administration has assured that an agreement is close, even if the declarations of American diplomacy seem more optimistic this time. The talks intensified as the return of Donald Trump approached, a factor which seems to have changed the situation because in reality, “the discussions began 13 months ago”, without ever reaching fruition, underlines Guillaume Ancel, former officer and author of Saint-Cyr, at the Grande Muette school. Repeated failures due, according to him, to the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who is trying, at all costs, to stay in power despite a large protest movement within his population.
Donald Trump has already indicated that he wants to quickly end the conflict. He recently even promised “hell” to the region if the hostages were not released before his return. On Monday, officials from both camps reported progress in the talks which made it possible to remove “the last blocking points” according to a source close to the negotiations.
-A “temporary” ceasefire
The agreement currently being negotiated “has nothing innovative” according to Guillaume Ancel: “We are at exactly the same point as in December 2023 and we are negotiating on the same things.” This provides for an end to the fighting and an exchange of Israeli hostages for a thousand Palestinian prisoners. 94 Israeli hostages are still being held in the Gaza Strip since the October 7 attack perpetrated by Hamas. 34 died according to the army. “We’re talking about hostages who were bombed daily for more than a year. It’s a miracle that there are around thirty of them still alive. I don’t dare imagine the physical and psychological state in which they are “, underlines the military expert. On the other hand, “thousands” of Palestinians have been “imprisoned” by Israel “without trial”. These are the prisoners who should normally be released by the Jewish state.
It remains to be seen what the ceasefire agreement provides for the future of the Palestinian enclave. It is impossible to determine at this time whether the Israeli army will remain there or whether the territory will be occupied again. “The Prime Minister wants to impose military control. The army is opposed to it because it knows that it would involve daily losses,” says Guillaume Ancel. Israel will “not leave Gaza until all the hostages have returned, the living and the dead,” an Israeli official told AFP, specifying that there was no question of a ceasefire definitive, but temporary. According to media reports, Israel would be allowed to maintain a “buffer zone” in the Gaza Strip during the first phase of the ceasefire.
For Guillaume Ancel, A “new terrorist war” led in the future by the “survivors” of Gaza wishing to take revenge for the murderous campaign led by Israel, is not impossible, believes Guillaume Ancel.
