Illustration : RE.
The contract for pipelines connecting Russia to Europe, crossing Ukraine, ended on December 31, 2024. A third of European gas transited there.
On December 31, 2024, the transit of Russian gas via Ukrainian infrastructure ended. A third of European gas passed through this pipeline. This decision, announced in August by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, put an end to a five-year contract between the Ukrainian public company Naftogaz and the producer Gazprom of which the Russian state is the majority shareholder.
This gas pipeline, known as Bratstvo (“Brotherhood”), continued to operate two years and ten months after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The cessation of this transit, presented by kyiv as a response to Russian aggression, also constitutes a loss for Ukraine, which received substantial transit rights.
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LNG to compensate
For the European Union (EU), the decision did not cause an immediate crisis. At a meeting of the “gas coordination group” in early January, the European Commission affirmed that supplies were secure thanks to reserves, 72% full, and increasing imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) . However, Austria (80% dependent on Russian gas) and Slovakia, still very dependent on Russian gas in 2024, are more worried. Pro-Russian Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico denounced an “erroneous decision”. He constantly reminded us of the increase in gas prices, which crossed the 50 euros per megawatt hour (€/MWh) mark, a high peak since October 2023.
The cessation of Ukrainian transit reflects the evolution of European gas strategy. Since 2022, it has been striving to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, going from 45% of imports in 2021 to around 19% in 2024. This transition is based on the development of port infrastructure to receive LNG and partnerships with countries like the United States and Qatar. This mode of transport is, however, more expensive than the gas pipeline.
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A European divide
The end of the Ukrainian transit also highlights internal divisions within the EU. While Brussels pursues its goal of carbon neutrality by 2050, some member states, such as Slovakia and Hungary, maintain close relations with Moscow to secure supplies at lower costs. This dissonance complicates the adoption of a unified energy policy.
At the same time, Russia continues to supply part of Europe through other channels, such as TurkStream and LNG. This situation fuels criticism, particularly regarding the persistence of imports despite sanctions against Moscow. For Phuc-Vinh Nguyen, energy expert at the Jacques Delors Institute, interviewed by Le Monde, this dependence “also sends Europe back to a certain hypocrisy”.
