Trump’s return creates opportunity to eliminate Iranian threat – experts

According to a panel of experts appointed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to examine defense spending and the Israeli army’s military force design for the future, the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States represents an unprecedented opportunity to eliminate the threat that Iran poses to Israel.

The Nagel committee said Monday that Trump’s return to the White House “creates, for the first time, the potential for fundamental change and a significant removal or reduction of the Iranian threat.”

Trump’s inauguration is scheduled for January 20. He is expected to resume some version of the “maximum pressure” campaign he waged during his first term to pressure Iran to abandon its nuclear program.

The release of the panel’s findings came the same day as an Axios report that Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer emerged from a meeting with Trump in November believing that the U.S. president-elect would support an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, or even order an American attack.

The committee, chaired by Brigadier General (Res.) Prof. Jacob Nagel and composed of representatives from the Prime Minister’s Office, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Defense and the IDF, is responsible for determining the direction of the design of Israel’s military strength for the next decade, its budgetary implications and its economic impact.

He presented his findings to Israeli journalists Monday afternoon, then to Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich later in the day.

There are fears that Iran is moving towards building a nuclear weapon as the Islamic republic finds itself increasingly cornered following a series of devastating strikes – coupled with the impending Trump’s inauguration.

Speculation has also emerged that Israel may strike Iran in response to recurring ballistic missile attacks launched against Israel by Yemen’s Houthi terrorist group, who receive weapons and other support from from the Islamic Republic.

Last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran was ready to face any further Israeli attack and he warned that such action could trigger a wider conflagration.

The Nagel panel report states that Iran’s nuclear program is “a critical threat that must be thwarted, at all costs and in any way, direct or indirect.”

He indicated that, until now, diplomatic and operational circumstances did not allow ending the program, only slowing it down.

According to the report, Iran’s strategic objective is to “bring about the conventional destruction of Israel, directly and indirectly, under a nuclear umbrella.”

The report outlines four areas where Israel should focus its efforts against Iran. Most important, according to the committee, is Iran’s ability to arm itself.

Nagel told reporters that efforts to prevent countries from enriching uranium have failed in the past.

Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian speaking at a ceremony marking the anniversary of the death of General Qassem Soleimani (on banner), killed in a 2020 US drone attack, as locally-made missile designs are on display at right, in the Imam Khomeini Grand Mosque, in Tehran, Iran, January 2, 2025. (Credit: Vahid Salemi/AP)

Israel should also work to weaken the Iranian regime, end enrichment efforts and target its ballistic missile program, Nagel added.

As a panel tasked with making budgetary recommendations, the Nagel panel examined the economy and its implications for Israel’s ability to build and maintain an effective military. Overall, he noted positive signs for the economy, as well as a recovery as fighting ends in Lebanon and potentially Gaza.

“October 7 did not take place due to a lack of budget or the size of the army,” the report noted.

On the contrary, the war has clearly shown that there are insufficiencies in preparedness and capabilities that can no longer be ignored, the committee added.

Kfir Brigade troops operating in Beit Hanoun, northern Gaza, in a photo released on January 4, 2025. (Israeli Army)

The panel indirectly criticized previous concepts of “security” which sought to achieve long periods of tranquility through deterrence and economic incentives. “Preventing the adversary’s rise to power, in all its forms, is more important than prolonged tranquility,” according to the report.

“Israel’s response to attempts to harm it must be continuous and sometimes even disproportionate. »

The committee recommended significant increases in the defense budget for the next decade in the areas of human capital, the Iranian threat, missile defense, border security, ground troops, production and independence of national munitions, cyber defense and intelligence.

The panel calls for an increase of 9 billion shekels for 2025, then an additional 15 billion shekels each year until 2030, after which the annual budget will decrease by 3 billion shekels. According to the committee, taxes should not be raised to finance the increase in the Defense budget, but rather rely on anticipated economic growth.

Israeli soldiers cross a security fence along the Syrian border, in the town of Majdal Shams, December 15, 2024. (Matias Delacroix/AP)

Although not invited to speak on the issue, the Nagel panel called for an “egalitarian compulsory service for all citizens”, saying it will have to be implemented “gradually, depending on the IDF’s conscription capacity and its needs.

He did not mention by name the ultra-Orthodox or Arab communities, which are generally not subject to compulsory military service.

Regarding political leaders, the committee said that Israeli elected officials do not sufficiently influence the security services: “When this happens, it is in very limited areas, on matters agreed in advance, and at advanced stages, when the influence is already minor. »

He proposed an annual schedule for security services to present work plans and assessments to cabinet, so that elected officials have more say and can challenge assumptions.

Maj. Gen. David Zini, head of the Soldier Training Command, salutes an ultra-Orthodox soldier recruited by the Israeli army’s new ultra-Orthodox brigade, known as the Hasmonean Brigade, January 5, 2025. (Credit: Israeli Army)

Regarding domestic arms production, the panel warned that in the event of future conflict, “we may not be able to purchase [des munitions essentielles]even with friendly countries, when we wish.”

During the war against the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas in Gaza, Canada, France, the United Kingdom and other European countries have imposed partial suspensions of arms deliveries, and some leaders have even called for general prohibitions.

Even close allies like Germany and the United States have been accused of slowing down arms deliveries.

According to the report, independent domestic production “will grant Israel deep and protected freedom of political action, and spread its strength and resilience.”

British Foreign Secretary David Lammy making a statement on arms sales to Israel, September 2, 2024. (Screen capture: PRU/AFP)

The committee called for investments and the creation of new units in a range of cutting-edge areas, including in AI, space combat, hypersonic missiles, autonomous platforms and microwave capabilities high power electromagnetics.

During its work, the panel spoke with the Defense Ministry’s budget division, the Accountant General, the Central Bank of Israel, the Finance Ministry and members of theestablishment of Defense.

In May, following a long battle with theestablishment of Defense, Smotrich announced that he had reached an agreement with the Minister of Defense at the time, Yoav Gallant, for the creation of this committee of experts.