Since the start of the new year, the gas pipeline linking Russia to Ukraine has no longer transported gas to European countries, due to the expiration of a contract signed between the two parties in 2019.
As most European countries no longer buy oil and coal from Russia, the Russian regime sees its energy ties with the continent further crumbling. Moscow thus loses its power to exert political pressure there.
The end of Russian gas transit via Ukraine concludes decades of close energy ties between the former Soviet Union, now Russia, and Europe.
These strategic relationships emerged in the 1960s, with the gradual establishment of four gas pipeline networks: Brotherhood, passing through Ukraine, Yamal, through Poland, Turk Stream, under the Black Sea, and Nord Stream, under the Baltic Sea, towards Germany.
Over time, Russia has managed to meet more than 40% of Europe’s overall gas needs: an essential energy for heating, but also for industries, which has the quality of being less polluting than coal. .
In the 2000s, important events made Europeans understand the risks of this increased dependence on Russia, led since 2000 by Vladimir Putin.
Repeated arguments
A first incident occurred in the winter of 2006, involving Russia and Ukraine. A disagreement over prices is leading Moscow to reduce gas transit through Ukraine, penalizing customer countries that depend on this precious gas to heat homes.
A second dispute took place in the winter of 2009. This time, it lasted longer, with more serious consequences: the interruption of gas for two weeks directly led to the death of around ten people, in temperatures reaching minus 20 degrees.
The United States (Republicans and Democrats) and several European states, Poland first and foremost, vigorously deplore this growing danger in the face of gas coming from Russia, because of the geopolitical blackmail that can result.
However, Germany, Europe’s main economic power, turns a deaf ear to these criticisms. The country is still attached to its Eastern policydefined in the 1970s. This “eastward policy” aims to bring about détente with Moscow through economic and commercial interdependencies so close that they make the outbreak of conflicts impossible.
It must be said that German industry is satisfied with this Russian gas, available in abundance and which contributes to its economic power.
Germany is even increasing its dependence on Russian energy. In 2011, the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, directly connecting Russia to Germany, was put into operation.
The Nord Stream 2 pipeline, completed in 2021, which aims to double transit capacity, was never opened due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
A new era
Germany’s decision to cancel the project, once considered highly strategic, marked the start of a new era in energy ties between Moscow and Europe.
The continent aims, by the end of this decade, to completely wean itself off gas imported by Russian pipelines. The reduction in its gas dependence on this country, in barely two years, is already significant, from 41% in 2021 to 8% of its imports via gas pipelines in 2023.
Of course, the continent still buys liquefied natural gas from Russia on a significant scale, but it is considering a reduction plan this year.
The big winner of this profound shift away from Russia’s energy sector is the United States. Thanks to the shale revolution of the 2000s and the resulting abundance of fossil oil and gas, in 2016 Washington lifted the ban, put in place in the mid-1970s, on exporting gas outside its territory. .
Almost 10 years later, with the European decision to reduce its purchases of energy imported from Russia, the United States has considerably increased its gas exports to Europe: they have more than doubled between 2021 and 2023, representing the half of European imports.
