The reconfiguration of the European gas market, a direct consequence of sanctions against Russia, opens up new prospects for Algeria.
Indeed, the North African giant, through its national company Sonatrach, is gradually establishing itself as a major player in the energy supply of the Old Continent, particularly in Central Europe where the Russian withdrawal leaves a considerable void.
The change is spectacular: European imports of Russian gas have collapsed, going from 150 billion cubic meters in 2021 to less than 40 billion at the start of 2024.
This trend was further accentuated with the expiration, on January 1, of the Ukrainian transit contract, depriving Europe of an additional 14 billion cubic meters for 2025.
In this disrupted context, Algeria is playing its cards skillfully.
Despite national production of 52 billion cubic meters in 2023, including 18 billion in LNG, Sonatrach manages to balance its international commitments and growing domestic demand.
The Reggane and Timimoun deposits, operational since 2021, have helped stabilize exports.
The Algerian commercial offensive in Central Europe is proof of this new dynamic. The breakthrough in Slovenia, with deliveries of 300 million cubic meters since November 2024, followed by the opening of the Czech market in October of the same year, demonstrates a calculated expansion strategy.
However, this progression occurs in a complex Mediterranean energy situation. Diplomatic tensions with certain European partners, notably Spain on the question of Western Sahara, and France on memorial issues, have impacted gas exchanges. The Medgaz gas pipeline particularly suffered from these political frictions.
The United States certainly took advantage of the situation by doubling its exports to Europe, and Norway strengthened its position.
But Algeria, now third European supplier, has undeniable geographical advantages.
The extension of the Italian network towards the north provides strategic infrastructure to penetrate the Central European markets.
Opportunities nevertheless remain moderate in this region, historically dependent on Russian gas. The configuration of the networks naturally favors northern European routes.
However, the energy vulnerability of countries like Slovakia and Hungary could accelerate the diversification of their sources of supply.
This reorientation of gas flows towards Central Europe ultimately represents a historic opportunity for Algeria to strengthen its economic and geopolitical influence.
