Common standards, transshipment of containers, customs clearance of goods… Seven countries crossed by these lines have also reached an agreement to increase the speed and frequency of convoys. Cheaper than the plane and faster than the boat, the China-Europe rail link has seen its traffic resist the Covid pandemic. Despite confinement, it benefited from the explosion in maritime transport prices and demand for products made in China, such as masks. But since the start of the war in Ukraine, this endless growth has been called into question.
Traffic collapse between 2021 and 2023
“A number of companies and shippers have decided to cease operations in or through Russia,” explains Julien Thorez, geographer in charge of research at the CNRS, author of a study on the subject. At the same time, maritime transport has become more competitive again. Companies like BMW or Decathlon, which had clothes delivered from Wuhan to the Dourges terminal (Pas-de-Calais) by train, have thrown in the towel. “As of December 31, 2023, 89.3% of our volumes of finished products transported used the sea route,” confirms the French group. As a direct consequence, rail traffic between China and Europe through Kazakhstan collapsed by 70% between 2021 and 2023, with only 211,000 TEUs transported last year.
If circulation restrictions exist on products that could have military use, trains continue to pass through Russia to deliver to Europe, as confirmed by DB Cargo. The German railway operator thus transported 35,000 containers on the Eurasian corridors in 2023. Faced with the collapse in traffic, China has reviewed its logistics strategy in Europe and is favoring the most profitable destinations.
A subsidiary of the SNCF group, Forwardis can no longer count on direct connections from the multimodal hubs of Valenton (Val-de-Marne) or Dourges to the Chinese border. “Given market uncertainties, Chinese companies limit their filling risks and often organize trains to Poland. Then an operator in Europe is responsible for delivering the different poles. explains Philippe Golder, Managing Director of Forwardis.
A shorter journey, but more expensive
Despite its passage through Russia, it would be a mistake to draw a line under the China-Europe rail link too quickly. “We must not forget the immensity of the Chinese territory: for a certain number of cities far from the coast, the land route remains advantageous. And goods must be delivered quickly, underlines Sébastien Colin, geographer at the National Institute of Oriental Languages and Civilizations (Inalco).
Thus, since the start of the year, transported volumes have started to rise again, with a 154% increase in traffic between China and Poland, according to the Eurasian Rail Alliance. The tensions in the Red Sea are not unrelated. “We have had a lot of requests to organize trains, confirms Philippe Golder. We had to be vigilant, because rail cannot absorb everything. The danger was that transit times would increase and cause us to lose loyal customers.”
An alternative route from Kazakhstan, crossing the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia then Turkey, also seeks to emerge by bypassing Russia. However, traffic on this “middle corridor” still remains modest, with 33,600 TEUs in 2022, due to a lack of adequate infrastructure. “The journey is 3,000 kilometers shorter,” indicates a European company which was required to use this route, “but there are different modes of transport and very little coordination. Not to mention the cost, which is much higher.”
Conversely, new connections between China and Russia, via Kazakhstan, have emerged since 2022. They could help to compensate for part of the volumes lost to the West. #
You are reading an article from L’Usine Nouvelle 3737 – December 2024
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