The valves are closed. Russia has definitively cut off the tap on gas transiting to Europe via Ukraine. A decision with serious consequences that is reshaping the continent's energy landscape and exacerbating geopolitical tensions. What options are now available to Europeans to secure their gas supply?
This is an event that marks a turning point in energy relations between Russia and Europe. As announced several months ago, Moscow has definitively closed the valves on the gas pipeline passing through Ukraine to supply the Old Continent. A decision with multiple geopolitical and economic implications which raises numerous questions about the future of European energy security.
The end of an era for Russian gas in Europe
Since January 1, not a single molecule of Russian natural gas has passed through the Ukrainian gas pipeline network towards Europe. This is the direct consequence of the expiration of the contract linking Gazprom, the Russian gas giant, to its Ukrainian counterpart Naftogaz. An agreement which was signed at the end of 2019 for a period of 5 years but which was not renewed, against a backdrop of deep disagreements between the two parties in a context of war.
For kyiv, this is a “historical event”. Russia is losing markets, it will suffer financial losses
welcomed the Ukrainian Minister of Energy, German Galushchenko. On the Russian side, Gazprom deplores this outcome, considering that it has been deprived of the technical and legal possibility of supplying gas for transit through Ukraine.
Europe faces a major supply challenge
For the European Union, this is a new blow in terms of energy. Already deprived of deliveries via Nord Stream since the sabotage of the tubes in the Baltic Sea, it is losing a major source of supply with the cessation of transit through Ukraine. In 2023, these are nearly 15 billion cubic meters of Russian gas which had still transited through this country to the Twenty-Seven.
Certain countries in Central and Eastern Europe, historically very dependent on Russian gas, find themselves particularly exposed. Hungary and Slovakia have expressed their concern in recent weeks, complaining of seeing the tap cut off without any real credible immediate alternatives.
What options to secure European supplies?
Faced with this new energy challenge, what options are available to Europe to secure its gas supplies? Several avenues are considered:
- Increase LNG imports, particularly from the United States and Qatar
- Increase flows via other gas pipelines, such as the TransAdriatic Pipeline (TAP) linking Azerbaijan to Italy
- Accelerate the deployment of renewable energies to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons
- Amplify energy saving and energy efficiency efforts
But these alternatives will not be able to completely and immediately compensate for the loss of Russian volumes. Europe will need to demonstrate unity and solidarity to overcome this new energy shockin an increasingly tense international context. The question of security of supply promises to be one of the major challenges of the coming months and years.
Towards a recomposition of the geopolitical landscape
Beyond its energy implications, the cessation of gas transit through Ukraine also marks a new stage in the geopolitical standoff between Russia and the West. For Moscow, it is one less lever of pressure on Europe. But it is also the sign of an ever more marked decoupling between the two spaces, against a backdrop of sanctions and tensions exacerbated by the ongoing conflict.
Cutting off Moscow's ability to export gas directly to the EU is another victory after NATO's enlargement to Finland and Sweden.
Radoslaw Sikorski, Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs
This decision could also have repercussions on the internal balances in Russia and Ukraine. For the Kremlin, the loss of transit revenues is a significant shortfall which adds to the impact of Western sanctions. kyiv, on the contrary, sees it as a step towards its energy emancipation from its neighbor.
One thing is certain: the cessation of Russian gas flows by Ukraine redistributes the cards in the European energy and geopolitical game. It opens a new page in the complex relations between Brussels, kyiv and Moscow, fraught with uncertainties but also, perhaps, with opportunities to build a more sustainable and resilient energy model. The future will tell us.
