The organization mandated to carry out the country’s carbon assessment reveals this Friday that the reduction in GHG emissions continues, with -2.4% over the first three quarters of 2024. On the other hand, this is less significant than in 2023 (-6% over the same period) and is below the French climate objectives. In the third quarter, emissions were even up “slightly” by +0.5%.
At a time when the planet is experiencing the hottest year ever observed and populations all over the world are being overwhelmed by increasingly devastating climatic events, the drop in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions marks the not in France, according to Citepa estimates. The body mandated by the State to carry out the annual inventory of the country’s GHG emissions is publishing this Friday, December 27, an interim report for the first nine months of 2024. Over this period, the drop in GHG emissions is -2, 4% (excluding carbon sinks) compared to the first three quarters of the previous year.
For comparison, over the first nine months of 2023 compared to those of 2022, the decrease was -6%. So, “these first figures relating to 2024 indicate a continued decline in GHG emissions but a lower level of reduction than in 2023”notes Citepa. In detail, the experts of the independent association observe a drop of -5% in emissions in the first quarter and -2.2% in the second, then “a slight increase” +0.5% in the third quarter.
“Fortunately this slowdown leaves us still on the right trajectory”reacted Friday morning the Minister of Ecological Transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher, at the microphone of RTL. “Given the efforts we have made over the past two years, we are not falling behind [sur l’objectif de réduire de 55% les émissions de la France d’ici à 2030, ndlr]. But be careful, it reminds us that we must not let our guard down.”
More than a warning, “these results must be a real shock for this new government so that it restores both regulatory and financial resources to the ecological transition”, writes on the social network Bluesky Anne Bringault, director of programs for the NGO federation Réseau Action Climat. Stop & go policies on the ecological transition (such as the postponement of energy sieve renovation obligations) and the reduction in public support (for electric vehicles, renovation or the green fund) unfortunately have very concrete effects on emissions. of GHGs of France ».
If the first half of 2024 sees a reduction in GHG emissions in “all major sectors”electricity production in the lead, followed by buildings, industry and transport, the third quarter is therefore marked by a break. On the one hand, the downward trend in the energy industry continues, with -12.9% compared to the same quarter in 2023, driven in particular according to the authors by “the least use of fossil fuels in the production of electricity”.
The buildings and transport sector lagging behind
On the other hand, road transport saw its emissions increase by 1.1%, particularly in July. This Friday morning, Agnès Pannier-Runacher once again raised the hypothesis of a tightening of the conditions governing the renewal of companies’ automobile fleets: “Companies buy half as many electric cars as households and therefore they are not playing the game. We will have to push them to play the game”.
CO2 from the buildings sector exploded during this third quarter (+ 11.8%). The explanation is to be sought on the side of “increase in emissions associated with heating residential and tertiary buildings” in September, explain the authors of the Citepa report. “This year we are seeing an increase in the installation of gas boilers, which is not good news, and an increase in the use of fuel oil”added the minister.
On the other hand, the association’s experts note that after a post-Covid rebound effect in 2022, emissions from domestic air transport “are experiencing an increasingly steep decline” (-3.5% for 2023 and -4.2% for 2024), without reaching the 2019 level. This is explained in particular by the abolition by decree in May 2023 of short flights (less than two hours and a half) if a direct rail alternative exists.
As Citepa recalls, the reduction trajectory to achieve the climate objectives set by the government “implies a necessary reduction of 4.7% per year” on average between 2022 and 2030. The estimated drop of -2.4% communicated this Friday is therefore lower than expected and highlights the fact that the good result for the year 2023 (-5.8% compared to 2022) can be explained by elements that are both cyclical (restarting nuclear power plants, inflation) and structural (decree on short-term flights, changes in the road fleet, water pumps). heat) as calculated by the members of the High Climate Council (HCC) in their sixth annual report published in June. The consolidated results for the whole of 2024 are not yet known and will be published by Citepa in the second quarter of 2025.
Gap with carbon neutrality trajectory
In addition to the absence of data for the fourth quarter of 2024, emissions from certain subsectors are not estimated over the first three semesters, like part of those from agriculture, waste, fluorinated gases as well as the very important carbon sink. Indeed, the emissions estimated here are the gross emissions of CO2e (CO2 equivalent, a measure used to compare emissions of various greenhouse gases) caused by human activities and do not take into account the amount of carbon absorbed naturally by forests and soils. However, this carbon sink “reduced” in recent years, under “the combined effect of repeated droughts, diseases affecting the mortality rate of trees and an increase in timber harvests”underlined Citepa in a previous report.
The country “must stay the course” of its public action if it wants to limit as quickly as possible “aggravation” ongoing consequences and others “cascading risks” of climate change, the members of the HCC wrote a few months ago. If at the time they welcomed the progress “significant” having made it possible to record a 5.8% reduction in gross emissions last year, researchers already pointed out that “alignment of existing policies” was judged “insufficient” to respect the carbon neutrality trajectory by 2050.
Updated Friday morning, December 27, with comments from Minister Agnès Pannier Runnacher and RAC program director Anne Bringault
