The day after the censorship of the Barnier government, the President of the Republic tried to reassure while setting a new course during a solemn speech on Thursday, December 5. Since then, he has consulted political actors with a view to appointing a new prime minister, receiving party leaders from the “republican arc” – excluding LFI and the RN. What is its real power today? What will it be in the months that separate us from the next presidential election?
The day after the censorship, Emmanuel Macron wanted to legitimize his dissolution decision in June, showing that he was keen to defend his past decisions as well as his record, which he does not wish to see unraveled. He also recalled his wish to convince certain political forces to govern together and to appoint a prime minister who could escape immediate censure. He claims to have “let the Prime Minister govern, Parliament legislate. » He was very severe towards the parties located at the extremes of the political spectrum who would have organized disorder and chaos, thinking only of the presidential election and organizing “an anti-Republican front “.
He therefore wanted to position himself above all, judging the political actors, signaling his wish to step back but not to disappear, as some would like. In this sense, he also rejected the idea of his resignation, requested by Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, ensuring that he wanted to see his mandate through to the end.
He also gave the broadest possible interpretation of his power to appoint the prime minister. Emmanuel Macron wants a “government of general interest” with actors who, if not participating directly, would commit to supporting it and not censoring it.
Finally, on two occasions, he said he did not want tax increases. This position shows that the President of the Republic is trying as much as possible to influence the political direction of the future government, without being certain of being able to achieve this.
If Emmanuel Macron has finally lost most of his power to drive and decide on the policies pursued by the government, he is not giving up and is clinging to everything that allows him to maintain his influence.
Contrary to what some more or less suggest, there is nothing unconstitutional or illegal in his action to appoint a new prime minister. The basic law requires him to appoint a prime minister (article 8) but leaves him free on how to achieve this: it is a discretionary power, without validation by others.
Beyond this important choice, which obviously takes into account the parliamentary balance of power, what will be its role in future cohabitation?
A cohabitation different from previous ones
In previous cohabitations – between Mitterrand and Chirac (1986-1988), Mitterrand and Balladur (1993-1995), Chirac and Jospin (1997-2002), the existence of a clear parliamentary majority of the right or left left little power of interpretation to the president who had to choose the prime minister desired by the winning coalition.
The current situation of tripartition of the assembly, with little difference in seats between the three main camps, opens up possibilities for it to give itself an active role, at least during this period of choosing a team in power. Thus, in September, he chose a head of government from the moderate right (47 elected officials) who, with Ensemble pour la République (93), Horizons (34) and MoDem (36), gathered a few more seats ( 210) than the coalition of left-wing parties (193 deputies) or the radical right (142).
Read more: Legislative elections: how cohabitation would reshuffle the cards between the president and his prime minister
In previous cohabitations, the president became a sort of leader of the opposition and regained his political health by criticizing government choices from his Aventine. The presidency of the Council of Ministers, which he continues to hold in accordance with the constitution – which is somewhat surprising – offers him a very good observatory of government decisions and exchanges. The president could no longer “play politics” but could challenge that of power and prepare his return or that of his camp.
In the present situation, he can retain a power of influence born from his proximity to the central bloc – which will probably be the centerpiece of the new government – even if the failed dissolution generated much criticism in his own camp and even if his former supporters tend to become more independent, especially since he will not be able to run again in 2027.
This influence on domestic policy, the importance of which we do not yet know, will be accompanied by a strong role maintained in international relations, European affairs and defense, as under previous cohabitations. In these sectors, the president will certainly not accept the appointment of ministers who are not compatible with his orientations. It is also he who appoints the ministers, on the proposal of the first of them.
Julien de Rosa
Beyond this power retained in these major areas, Emmanuel Macron will certainly make the most of the possibilities of influencing opinion offered by memorial celebrations and inaugurations of all kinds. The reopening ceremonies of Notre-Dame de Paris showed his ability to stay in the light while using the event diplomatically by bringing together Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky.
Meeting of the parties: Macron at the center of the game
By bringing the parties together at the Élysée on December 10, Emmanuel Macron announced that he wanted to reach an “agreement on method” and not the content of a government program, which will be the work of the appointed prime minister. It thus aims to define the way in which political actors could debate in the assembly to reach “agreements” on each project without censoring the government. The scope of the meeting, a “republican arc” from which the extremes are excluded, aims to insert a part of the left, socialists, even ecologists and communists, into the process.
Socialists are distancing themselves more and more from LFI: they are sensitive to the need for governmental stability and want to prevent the government from being under the permanent threat of censorship. They are still demanding a left-wing prime minister but suspect that they should not obtain satisfaction. The parties of the republican arc would therefore undertake not to censor this government as long as it does not use 49.3 to force its laws through. If the socialists do not vote for censorship of the extremes, it should not be able to be adopted. This government should therefore remain in place, according to the president, until the presidential elections of 2027, since the absence of censorship does not force it to resign when its texts are rejected or very significantly amended.
For the moment, this reciprocal commitment project is verbal and is likely to remain so, with both parties not liking to tie their hands. It is not certain that political actors will resist the temptation to use 49.3 or censorship on the budget or the most emblematic laws.
Since the base of the government parties could not be broadened compared to the Barnier government, the prime minister should come from a party in the presidential majority.
We therefore see that the president retains significant power in this situation of cohabitation. This is hardly surprising in a political system described as semi-presidential, where the president has, at least at the start of his mandate, legitimacy resulting from direct universal voting, but which is contested by the result of early legislative elections.
