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The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria is redefining the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and confronting Lebanon with crucial choices. Between regional instability, economic repercussions and opportunities for strategic repositioning, the country oscillates between pessimism and hope. The Lebanese media reflect these uncertainties, highlighting the risks of a contagion of Syrian tensions but also the possibility of turning a page marked by decades of Syrian domination.
A persistent climate of distrust
For decades, the Assad regime has exercised profound influence over Lebanon, through political alliances and a military presence. This influence has left traces, notably divisions between pro-Syrian factions, such as Hezbollah and its allies, and the March 14 parties, opposed to this interference. Annahar reports that the fall of Assad reignites these fractures, with each side seeking to redefine its strategy in this new context.
Parties close to Hezbollah insist on the need to maintain a strong alliance with Iran, seen as a guarantor of stability in a volatile region. On the other hand, opponents of the Syrian regime are calling for an increased distance from Damascus, believing that this rupture could free Lebanon from certain geopolitical constraints. Al-Joumhouria notes that this duality hinders the emergence of a unified vision for the future of the country.
An economy to rebuild
The fall of the Assad regime worsens the economic crisis in Lebanon. According to Al-Arabi al-Jadeedtraditional trade routes linking Lebanon to Arab markets via Syria are now impassable, exacerbating difficulties for the agricultural and industrial sectors.
However, some economists see this crisis as an opportunity for diversification. Asharq Al-Awsat reports that discussions are underway to strengthen trade with Gulf and European countries, although these efforts remain limited by internal political instability.
Security tensions at the border
The Lebanese-Syrian border, historically porous, is at the heart of security concerns. Assad’s fall has created a vacuum in some regions, exploited by routed armed groups and militias. Annahar stresses that the Lebanese army has strengthened its patrols in sensitive areas like Arsal, but limited resources hamper an effective response.
Hezbollah, a key player in these regions, also finds itself under pressure. Al-Joumhouria reports that the Shiite group fears an intensification of tensions with Israel, which could exploit this instability to strengthen its own positions, particularly in the Golan and southern Lebanon.
Opportunities for strategic repositioning
The fall of Assad could offer Lebanon an opportunity to redefine its role in the region. Some analysts cited by Al-Arabi al-Jadeed believe that the country could play a more active diplomatic role, mediating between the different powers, to stabilize the Middle East.
However, this optimistic vision comes up against complex realities. Internal political paralysis, divisions between factions and distrust of regional powers limit Lebanon’s ability to assert itself on the international stage.
Divided public opinion
Debates over Lebanon’s future are also reflected in local media. Some newspapers, such as Annaharwarn of a contagion of Syrian instability, calling for urgent measures to strengthen institutions and protect national sovereignty. Others, notably Asharq Al-Awsatemphasize that the fall of Assad could represent a unique opportunity for Lebanon to free itself from the shadow of Syria and strengthen its alliances with the Gulf countries and the West.
However, public opinion remains fragmented. Part of the population, exhausted by multiple crises, expresses deep pessimism about the ability of leaders to exploit this opportunity. Another, more optimistic, hopes that this Syrian transition could reduce the regional tensions that have weighed on Lebanon for decades.
What future for Lebanon?
As the Middle East enters a phase of geopolitical restructuring, Lebanon will have to make decisive choices. Will the country be able to free itself from foreign influences to adopt a more neutral position? Will internal divisions make it possible to build consensus around a common vision for the future?
At the same time, the role of international and regional powers will be decisive. Will the international community support Lebanon’s stabilization efforts or will it continue to treat the country as a mere proxy battleground? The answers to these questions will define Lebanon’s future in the years to come.
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