By choosing to vote for the motion of censure, the boss of the National Rally deputies questions her strategy. Has she become Donald Trump, Monte Cristo or Machiavelli?
The scene will be broadcast on December 12 on France 2. In a wonderful documentary “Dissolution – History of a political earthquake”, Marine Le Pen, all smiles, explains that Michel Barnier is a choice that she validates, but that it is a Prime Minister under surveillance. Two and a half months later, the monitoring is over. The head of the National Rally group in the National Assembly has decided to vote on the motion of censure tabled by the left, putting an end, a priori, to the Savoyard's mission. What happened in less than 100 days for the former presidential candidate to cross the Rubicon and partially blur her line of action?
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Since 2022, the National Rally has been built in opposition to rebellious France: respectability, notability and responsibility. The final stone in the “demonization” of a party which dreams of entering the Republican arc. After the dissolution, with its 142 deputies, the RN continued its tie strategy. What if, as several key figures in the presidential camp note, everything had changed in November? Donald Trump's victory in the United States showed that standing against the system, and increasingly against it, without nuance, was a guarantee of success. The requisitions in the trial of the parliamentary assistants of the National Front were a shock for the Le Pen camp with the prospect of a non-candidacy for the presidential election – the response is expected on March 31. Others also evoke powerful pressure from Marine Le Pen's base, including Jordan Bardella and Jean-Philippe Tanguy (we remember his outright attack on the Savoyard “fossil of politics”). From surveillance to intransigence.
“A slow poison” or a winning bet?
By changing tone with Michel Barnier – the famous red lines gradually abandoned by the Prime Minister – Marine Le Pen took the risk of appearing as the Countess of Monte Cristo taking revenge on a justice, according to her, political. “A one-shot gun,” scoffs a former minister. By bringing down the Barnier government, the RN thus becomes, paradoxically, the camp of institutional, political and economic disorder. “Beware of the slow poison of irresponsibility,” notes Frédéric Dabi, director general Opinion of Ifop. The new voters of the RN – bourgeoisie and retirees – may not like this maneuver and ultimately put Marine Le Pen and the Insoumis in the same bag.
On the side of the RN and its allies, these accusations are brushed aside. By making a simple bet: the outcome will prove them right. Once Michel Barnier falls, a new Prime Minister will be appointed, he will accede to the final request of the RN, the economy will not have been traumatized by this sequence and public opinion will give discharge to Marine Le Pen for having obtained progress on the budget. “Politics is a balance of power,” smiles a deputy. A medium-term bet, especially if an early presidential election were organized – a hypothesis refuted by Emmanuel Macron during his trip to Saudi Arabia – which would place her as a very big favorite. The three-time candidate for the supreme election should, however, meditate on this Florentine proverb: “The best-laid plans are those that are most easily unraveled. »
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