The ceasefire concluded between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah undermines the strategy of Hamas, which hoped for a regional escalation to help it in its war against the Jewish state, according to American officials. The development marks a victory for the Biden administration, which sought to contain the conflict and increase pressure on Hamas.
Even before the ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, Palestinian and American officials indicated that the political leadership of Hamas seemed ready to negotiate, abandoning the strategy of its former leader Yahya Sinwar, eliminated last month by Israeli forces. Sinwar had banked on an all-out war involving Hezbollah and Iran to defeat Israel after the October 7, 2023 attack.
The Israeli offensive against Hezbollah, having decimated its leadership and its stocks of long-range weapons, followed by this ceasefire agreement, leaves Hamas increasingly isolated. Iran, a supporter of Hamas and Hezbollah, seeks to avoid direct confrontation with Israel, particularly after the destruction of its air defense systems in October and the election of Donald Trump.
Hamas' political council may now be inclined to a ceasefire agreement if Israel agrees to compromises, notably on the withdrawal of its forces from Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to be waiting for Trump to take office before changing his position on negotiations with Hamas. Although Trump has pressed Israel to “end” the war in Gaza, he is unlikely to put significant pressure on Netanyahu. Western officials report that Israel remains skeptical of American and Arab proposals for post-conflict management of Gaza. Netanyahu sees plans for administration by the Palestinian Authority as doomed to failure, fearing a rapid return of Hamas to power. Some Hamas leaders have discussed possible concessions, including a temporary Israeli presence in the border area between Egypt and Gaza (the Philadelphia axis), although this position is officially rejected by the organization. Hamas, however, remains divided over its future role in Gaza and the extent of the compromises to be made with Israel.
