WASHINGTON (JTA) – The assassination in the United Arab Emirates of an Israeli rabbi affiliated with the Chabad movement shocked many and illustrated the many dangers facing Jews around the world.
But if the aim of the attack was to undermine the Abraham Accords between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and other Arab nations, Middle East analysts say it could well have the opposite effect: further strengthening these links.
“Given the UAE’s reaction, and given that I have not seen any Israeli indication that the UAE has not taken this matter seriously enough, it appears to be the opposite, that Israel has deeply appreciated the UAE’s response,” said Michael Koplow, senior policy officer at the Israel Policy Forum, referring to a UAE statement describing the assassination of Rabbi Zvi Kogan as an “attack on our values”.
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“In many ways this will only strengthen diplomatic relations,” he added.
Israel and the United Arab Emirates are still grappling with the fallout from the assassination of Mr. Kogan, 28, a Moldovan-Israeli emissary of the Chabad Hasidic movement who moved with his wife to Abu Dhabi in 2022, and whose the body was discovered on Saturday. Authorities in the United Arab Emirates arrested three Uzbek nationals in Türkiye on Monday suspected of involvement in the killing, which Israel called an act of terrorism.
As authorities investigate those responsible for Kogan’s death, political circles in Washington, Israel and the Gulf are asking a related question: What impact will this case have on ties between Israel and the United Arab Emirates?
The Rimon Market, a kosher market managed by Israeli Rabbi Tzvi Kogan, in Dubai, November 25, 2024. (Credit: Giuseppe CACACE / AFP)
The stakes of this question have become particularly high in recent weeks. The two countries normalized relations in 2020, under what has been called the Abraham Accords, and their ties have proven strong even as Israel wages a brutal, multi-front war against terrorist groups in Gaza and Lebanon.
President-elect Donald Trump, whose first administration negotiated the accords, has pledged to expand them during his next term beyond the four Arab states that have already signed them, including Saudi Arabia. His former aides say that ambition has not been hampered – and could even be accelerated – by the weekend’s tragedy.
Photos released by the United Arab Emirates on November 25, 2024 of the three suspects in the murder of Rabbi Zvi Kogan (from left): Olimpi Toirovich (28), Makhmudjon Abdurakhim (28), and Azizbek Kamlovich (33). (Credit: X; used in accordance with Section 27a of the Copyright Act)
Jason Greenblatt, the Trump administration’s former Middle East envoy, said he was in the United Arab Emirates when the killing was reported and saw only outrage — a sign , he said, that warm feelings persist between the countries, even as Israel faces protests and opposition throughout the Middle East and beyond, due to the war in Gaza.
“Everyone I met, whether Emiratis or other nationalities, including other Arab nationalities, was furious about what had happened,” said Greenblatt, who frequently visits the region, in a text sent to the Jewish Telegraphic Agency.
He added that the Abraham Accords were secure and that the attack reflected the perpetrators’ ability “to penetrate even extremely safe cities” like Dubai, where Kogan was last seen.
“To those who link the tragic, cold-blooded murder of Rabbi Kogan to the Abraham Accords and who suggest that the Abraham Accords will now weaken or fail, I strongly disagree,” he said. he declared.
“Emiratis hate this kind of behavior. Of course, it’s true that right now it can be uncomfortable to be openly Jewish or Israeli. This is normal, given what happened. But it’s not because of Emiratis or the countless other nationalities who live and thrive in the UAE.”
The United Arab Emirates is an authoritarian state that imposes strict limits on press freedom and protest. Since the discovery of Zvi Kogan’s body, the Emirati government has sent a message of anger and indignation towards his killers.
“The murder of Zvi Kogan is more than a crime in the UAE, it is a crime against the UAE. This is an attack on our homeland, our values and our vision,” Yousef Al Oitaba, the UAE ambassador to the United States, wrote in a series of tweets on Sunday. “In the UAE, we welcome everyone. We embrace peaceful coexistence. We reject extremism and fanaticism in all their forms. We honor the memory of Zvi Kogan by recommitting ourselves to these values.”
Motti Seligson, media director for Chabad, told JTA that the movement was also determined to strengthen its presence in the United Arab Emirates in the wake of Zvi Kogan’s assassination.
Kogan was one of seven emissaries to the country, and Seligson said Chabad would build a center in the UAE in Kogan’s memory. Donations have already started rolling in: Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law who led the Abraham Accords negotiations, pledged $1 million to Chabad in the United Arab Emirates, and his brother Josh quickly followed by pledging an amount equivalent. A fund for Kogan’s widow has so far raised nearly $700,000.
Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir (right) with Jason Greenblatt, the US president’s special representative, during the Arab League summit in Jordan, March 29, 2017. (Khalil Mazraawi/ AFP)
“When we face adversity, we become stronger; when we face darkness, it just means there is more light to carry,” Seligson said in an interview.
The Biden administration said it was already working closely with Israeli and Emirati authorities to bring those responsible for Kogan’s death to justice. She reiterated the message that the attack did not match the UAE’s welcome to Israelis, who began visiting the country in large numbers following the Abraham Accords.
“This is a horrible crime against all those who defend peace, tolerance and coexistence. This is also an attack on the UAE and its general rejection of violent extremism,” said Sean Savett, spokesperson for the National Security Council.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in his opening speech at the weekly cabinet meeting, also appeared committed to maintaining and strengthening relations with the UAE.
“I greatly appreciate the UAE’s cooperation in the investigation into the murder,” he said. “We will strengthen the bonds that unite us in the face of attempts by the axis of evil to harm the peaceful relationship between us. We will strengthen them and strive to increase regional stability.”
Authorities have not yet determined whether an organization or country was behind the attack. Rich Goldberg, a member of the National Security Council for the Middle East during Trump’s first term, said the assassination showed the hallmarks of those seeking to undermine the normalization deal, which also includes Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan.
He added that the perpetrators of the attack may also have hoped to “scare the Emirates and the Saudis into believing that there is some sort of penetration of Islamic terrorism that could somehow be carried out.” turn against their regimes.
Matthew Levitt, a counterterrorism expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the attack, whoever carried it out, was a sign of weakness – an indication that the perpetrators could not not reach Israeli officials or hard targets.
“If that’s the most they can do, it’s the softest target possible, a civilian who really stands out,” he said, referring to how Chabad officials stand out in terms of clothing.
The funeral of Israeli-Moldovan rabbi Tzvi Kogan in Kfar Chabad, a community in central Israel, on November 25, 2024. (Credit: GIL COHEN-MAGEN / AFP)
“This is not a government official, nor a barrage of ballistic missiles.
According to Goldberg, this murder should instead encourage the expansion of the Abraham Accords, because it shows that attacks of this type are ineffective.
“This is the moment where, if you don’t respond in this way, if you withdraw from normalization, if you say that Islamic terrorism aimed at sabotaging normalization will succeed, then you will see more terrorism,” Goldberg said .
Koplow, of the Israel Policy Forum, noted that one immediate effect could be reduced travel between Israel and the United Arab Emirates.
Currently, there are six or seven flights a day between the two countries, a notable exception from other airlines that have stopped serving Israel as it wages a multi-front war against enemies that fire barrages of missiles .
“If the number of Israelis going to the UAE decreases for security reasons, and that’s obviously an important aspect of the relationship, that’s going to be felt,” according to Koplow.
