Michel Barnier’s presence at Matignon is hanging by a thread. While Marine Le Pen can decide the fate of the Prime Minister, the latter is called to “compromise” with the RN even in his own camp.
The bottom line:
- Michel Barnier could be overthrown before the end of the year. The adoption of the 2025 budget, on which he has been actively working with his government since his arrival at Matignon, does not find consensus among parliamentarians.
- The threat is now concrete. The position of all the parties of the New Popular Front (NFP) – including the PS – is unanimous: with a motion voted by the National Rally, the Assembly is arithmetically able to bring down the Prime Minister.
- Marine Le Pen can now decide on the political future of the tenant of Matignon. This Monday, she spoke with Michel Barnier, but did not seem to have obtained any pledges. This Wednesday, November 27, the president of the RN, Jordan Bardella, continues to put pressure on the executive: “If the government persists and does not want to discuss, then this government will fall,” he warned.
- Gérald Darmanin, ex-tenor of Macronie and now EPR deputy, calls on Michel Barnier to make a “compromise” in particular towards the RN. “It is better to have a substantially modified budget than no budget at all (…) This dialogue includes, of course, also discussing with the RN deputies,” he wrote on X.
- According to information from RTL, Head of State Emmanuel Macron brought together several deputies for a lunch at the Élysée this Wednesday. For him, “the RN seems set to censor, we must do everything to prevent that from happening”. “Even if it means offering symbolic victories to everyone, including the RN,” specifies a Macronist to the media.
And directly
08:26 – “We must do everything to avoid Government censorship”, warns Darmanin
“In the troubled times that France and the world are experiencing, adding institutional and budgetary instability would be fatal and disastrous behavior. The Government needs time for action, France needs stability and serenity. a concert of Nations disrupted, France cannot see its voice weakened”, warns the EPR deputy Gérald Darmanin on days. “We must do everything to avoid Government censorship. It is the national interest which dictates this,” he concludes his message posted on X, Wednesday November 27.
08:14 – Darmanin wants a “compromise” and “also discuss with the RN deputies”
Wednesday November 27, the former Minister of the Interior and now EPR MP Gérald Darmanin, made a shocking proposal while the Barnier government is on the verge of being overthrown by the opposition, in particular because of deep differences on the 2025 budget. “I hope, for the good of my country, that they will not censor the Government of Michel Barnier, which is doing everything possible in very difficult circumstances,” he says on X.
On the other hand, according to him, “the authorities must hear requests for modifications to the budget: it is better to have a substantially modified budget than no budget at all (…) These requests for modifications (from the RN) are legitimate: they correspond to the democratic wishes of millions of French citizens who expressed themselves in June”, he continues.
“I believe that a gesture of compromise is needed (…) The hand must be extended to parliamentarians who do not wish to censor the Government a priori. This dialogue includes, of course, also discussing with the deputies of the RN. Their eleven million voters, who are often the ones disappointed by the so-called government parties, cannot be despised, much less excluded from the democratic field,” he concludes, still on the social network X.
To go further:
The Prime Minister, who regularly tells the media that he accepted his appointment without harboring any personal ambition, could give up his apron before the end of the year. For what ? Because the adoption of the 2025 budget does not find consensus among parliamentarians. Moreover, according to information from Le Parisien, even Emmanuel Macron confides behind the scenes that the “government will fall”, banking on censorship of the RN, “sooner than we think”. Information officially denied by the Elysée, but which spreads the rumor that the president is already preparing for the post-Barnier era.
It must be said that it is quite clear to everyone: Marine Le Pen is now aiming to bring down the government over the presentation of the budget. The president of the RN deputies, interviewed on RTL on November 20, had posed imperatives to Michel Barnier, demanding in a rather vague manner that the “purchasing power of the French be preserved”. This Monday, November 25, the noose tightened. Marine Le Pen spoke in the morning with the head of government and she did not seem to have obtained any guarantees: “Michel Barnier appeared to me to be at the same time courteous and firm in his positions. I repeated the lines reds of the RN”, she said, considering as very probable the hypothesis that the RN would vote on the motion of censure in the event of the use of 49.3. “We will see if our words have gained ground, but nothing is less certain,” she said. “If the government persists and does not want to discuss, then this government will fall,” warned the president of the RN, Jordan Bardella, Wednesday November 27 at the microphone of BFMTV.
The president of the RN deputies now knows she is at the center of the game. But her demands are very numerous: “Tapping businesses and retirees is unacceptable, […] the increase of 6 billion that he is planning on the price of electricity is unacceptable for us”, she said. And his demands can give the government a cold sweat: the slightest impact on the power of purchase by the French would be considered a red line Given the 40 billion in savings – including measures on health reimbursements – and some 20 billion in taxes presented by the Bercy ministers, there seems to be no doubt. that the power purchasing power of the French will be reached. “It’s a red line. And if this red line is indeed crossed, well we will vote for censorship,” insisted Marine Le Pen.
Mr. Barnier confirmed in mid-November in the columns of Ouest-France that he would “probably” hold his government accountable by having recourse to article 49.3 of the Constitution, which would allow adoption of the budget without a vote in Parliament. “The problem is not that of 49.3. The problem is what will be in the budget. Will Mr Barnier respect the commitment he made to ensure that the groups “Can the opposition recognize elements in its budget that seem essential to them?” asked Marine Le Pen on November 20.
What victory for Marine Le Pen?
Can the Prime Minister still convince Marine Le Pen in the coming days? To do this, it would be necessary to offer her pledges and some measures that she could present as a political victory. “He is spoiled for choice,” says to Politico political support from Michel Banier, who evokes the “very reasonable and quantified” counter-budget of the RN. According to information from BFMTV, the far right will decide during the budget vote in the Joint Committee (CMP), which will try to bring together deputies and senators after December 12.
