the essential
After the truce between Israel and Hezbollah, Frédéric Encel, geopolitical scientist specializing in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, explains what impact this truce will have on the region.
The truce between Israel and Hezbollah, which began this Wednesday, November 27, puts an end to the conflict that began more than 13 months ago, which left thousands dead and 900,000 displaced in Lebanon. Frédéric Encel, geopolitical scientist specializing in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, deciphers this new diplomatic turning point in the Middle East.
What made the two parties agree to this ceasefire?
Frédéric Encel: On the ground, the balance of power had become overwhelming in favor of Israel since the beginning of September and the elimination of Hassan Nasrallah, former leader of Hezbollah. Almost all the lieutenants were killed, as well as a thousand fighters. The Israeli army only counted around forty losses. Military victory is completely acquired for Benjamin Netanyahu, so much so that he accepted this truce. For Hezbollah, this ceasefire agreement was a question of survival.
Is this agreement likely to hold over time?
We must be optimistic about the chances of this agreement being held. It is important to emphasize that this is not a peace treaty. Hezbollah still does not recognize the State of Israel. The situation had become critical. This allows for a truce of at least four years, especially if the United States renews its support for Israel. On the Hamas side, the situation is very different. Netanyahu does not want a ceasefire, at least until all the hostages in Gaza are released.
What is the impact of Trump's arrival as president of the United States on January 20 on this ceasefire?
The arrival of Trump as president does not change much on the Palestinian side. Besides, that doesn't interest him. The real issue for him is Iran. If Trump remains true to his beliefs, he should continue to support Israel, at least on a political-military level, to weaken Iran. A diplomacy which has its limits: if Iran begins to put pressure on the price of a barrel of oil. Trump always prioritizes the impact on the American taxpayer.
