The budgetary timetable is accelerating and uncertainty over its outcome remains. To see things more clearly, Michel Barnier welcomed Marine Le Pen to Matignon this Monday, November 25, before receiving the other heads of opposition parliamentary groups this week. Its objective is to avoid a motion of censure after what seems more than likely: the use of 49.3 to pass the finance bill. At the end of this interview, the leader of the RN deputies maintained the threat of voting for a motion of censure if the “budget remains as is”. And added, perplexed: “We will see if today’s remarks catch on, but nothing is less certain.”
Concretely, the Senate began examining the 2025 finance bill in public session this Monday, November 25. The Luxembourg Palace has set itself until December 12 to complete the entire finance bill. The government is giving itself until December 16 to try to reach an agreement in the joint committee (CMP). The text should then return to the National Assembly, in session, on December 18. Michel Barnier would then probably start the 49.3.
The government could fall just before Christmas
A motion of censure could then be tabled immediately. The law imposes a 48-hour delay before putting it to a vote. The government could therefore fall on December 20, a few days before Christmas. The whole question will then be whether Marine Le Pen will press the censorship button. Will his party add its votes to the NFP? The leader of the RN deputies reminded the Prime Minister of his red line: the increase in taxes on electricity.
What happens if a motion of no confidence obtains a majority? “The government resigns and manages current affairs,” indicates Théo Ducharme, lecturer in public law at the University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne. Emmanuel Macron then has the choice between three solutions: rename Michel Barnier, choose another Prime Minister or appoint a Prime Minister described as “technical”. For its part, the 2025 finance bill would be de facto rejected.
France would therefore find itself without a budget. The entire last sequence would be undone. As if nothing had happened. Maud Bregeon, government spokesperson, then assured “that we are taking the risk of a Greek scenario”. For their part, Éric Coquerel, president of the Finance Committee at the Palais Bourbon, and Marine Le Pen affirm that “it would not be chaos”.
The vote on a “special law”
In this scenario, the so-called “resigned” government, until the appointment of a new Prime Minister, will have to manage current affairs. As Gabriel Attal did this summer. To avoid an American-style “shutdown”, he would ask the two assemblies to pass a special finance law. According to article 45 of the organic law relating to finance laws (LOLF), the government “urgently requests authorization from Parliament to collect taxes”. Then, it “opens appropriations by decree within the limit of the amount of the previous year for services which are deemed essential and which allow the State to continue to function”, explains Théo Ducharme, specialist in constitutional law. The services deemed essential are the payment of civil servants or the operation of public services. A scenario that has never happened in France. “It took place in the Netherlands in 2021,” however, indicates Dominique Rousseau, professor of constitutional law at Paris 1 Sorbonne University. Spain is also used to it. His Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez, did so in 2019, 2020 and 2024.
Last year’s budget would therefore be renewed to the nearest euro. The government could not create new taxes. Which makes Marine Le Pen say that “the 2024 finance bill will pass again”. And to rejoice because “the working and middle classes were less affected by taxes”. By definition, the State would be forced to make savings. “That is perhaps the only merit,” quips Théo Ducharme, lecturer in public law at the University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne. “The downside is that household and business confidence is falling, that’s what history shows,” he adds. “The lives of the French would still be changed,” indicates political scientist and constitutionalist Anne-Charlène Bezzina. “A State which can no longer spend a euro, cannot take initiative, cannot respond to emergencies such as providing a budgetary envelope for Ukraine, or simply reviewing the allocation of local authorities or the amount of allocations”, she continues.
The principle of the “provisional twelfth”
How would it work from January onwards? “The discussion would continue until an agreement is found on the 2025 budget,” explains Anne-Charlène Bezzina, lecturer in public law. In the meantime, “we should agree to divide the budget into twelve installments, month by month, it’s called the ‘provisional twelfth'”, she continues. Each month, the credits would be released compared to those of the same month of the previous year. A recurring device under the Third Republic. From 1871 to 1914 it was used 22 times.
In this scenario, there remains a snag. What happens if the “special law” is rejected by parliamentarians? “We have no precedent,” underlines Anne-Charlène Bezzina. “The idea of a blockage seems highly politically serious. It has no political purpose. I don’t see who would have an interest in this happening,” adds the constitutional expert.
