Legislative elections: what is this absolute majority that the RN is aiming for (and which would change a lot of things)?

THE first estimates The results of the legislative elections were announced this Sunday, June 30, 2024, after 8 p.m.

Yes, the National Rally takes the lead with between 33.14% of the votes obtained (according to the latest estimates), the New Popular Front who wanted to block the party from the flame, collected 27,99 % ballot papers.

Jordan Bardella et Jean-Luc Mélenchonleaders of the RN and LFI respectively, have announced their hopes. The one to choose a real “alternative” for the country, according to Jean-Luc Mélenchon, when Jordan Bardella imagines himself embodying “a Prime Minister of cohabitation” after an absolute majority in the second round.

Marine Le Pen also hammered home this Sunday evening: “We need an absolute majority for Jordan Bardella to be, in eight days, appointed Prime Minister by Emmanuel Macron. »

Absolute majority, relative majority…But what are we talking about, exactly? Response elements.

The first challenge: elect a Prime Minister from the opposing party

Let us first recall that the legislative elections elect the 577 deputies sitting in the National Assembly.

For a political party to win an absolute majority in the second roundvoters must elect at least 289 deputies out of 577 seats.

If this is the case, a situation of cohabitation will be put in place: the presidential majority, led for these elections under the banner Together for the Republic, will have to coexist in the lower house with the opposing party.

A strategic choice

At that time, the head of state, Emmanuel Macron, will have to appoint a Prime Minister, head of government, from the opposing camp. In the case of cohabitation, the presidential function temporarily disappears in favor of the Prime Minister.

Indeed, choosing a Prime Minister from the opposing political party prevents the Head of State to have control over the composition of the government teamwith the exception of the Ministers of Defense and Foreign Affairs.

In other words, having an absolute majority in the chamber would make it possible to establish a real counterweight in the adoption of bills in the face of a presidential majority, which was not the case until now.

A muddle in the event of a relative majority

And no majority absolute does not emerge during the second round, that is to say if no political group manages to reach the threshold of 289 seats, the political party (or coalition) which obtains the most seats will be in a situation of relative majority, noted LCP on its website.

In this situation, it is more difficult for the government to get its bills adopted, since it has to convince other political groups to support them or, at least, obtain a certain number of abstentions.

“Above all, if all oppositions vote against a text, the government can be put in a minority and the bill rejected,” adds The Parliamentary Channel.

Up to 310 seats won, according to Elabe and OpinionWay

For the moment, no absolute or relative majority can be decided before the outcome of the second round of the legislative elections, Sunday July 7.

More several estimates were made about the seats which could be won by the National Rally, depending on the results of this Sunday evening:

• According to Ipsos, the National Rally would have a relative majority in the National Assembly between 230 and 280 of the seats won;
• Ifop estimates that the party would win between 240 and 270 seats;
• Finally, Elabe and OpinionWay see the possibility of an absolute majority with 250 to 310 deputies elected in the hemicycle.

The New Popular Front, for its part, would win between 180 and 200 seats according to Ifop; between 125 and 165 deputies for Ipsos; between 130 and 170 for Opinion Way and 115 to 145 elected officials for Elabe. Find these projections in our article explaining what the future National Assembly could look like.

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