The National Rally came first in 17 of the 28 constituencies in the five departments of Aquitaine. Rise of the ideas of the extreme right or “catch-all” vote, difficult to read instructions, political strategies, here is what we can remember from this first round.
On June 30, French voters overwhelmingly voted for the National Rally. The far-right party, with its allies, obtained 33.13% of the vote nationwide. A breakthrough, already noted during the European elections, which is confirmed on the occasion of this election, even with a high turnout.
An RN at the highest in Lot-et-Garonne and other departments
In Lot-et-Garonne, the trend was already well underway since 2022, with two of the department’s three deputies under the National Rally label. On June 30, 2024, the party’s candidate, Hélène Laporte, narrowly missed the election in the first round with 49.31% of the vote. In the first constituency, the outgoing deputy Michel Lauzzana (Ensemble!) is largely outstripped by his RN competitor Sébastien Delbosq. And in the 3rd, Annick Cousin, candidate for re-election, confirms the establishment of Jordan Bardella’s party on her land, with 41.08% of the vote.
► READ ALSO. 2024 LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS. In Lot-et-Garonne, the RN continues to triumph and Jérôme Cahuzac fails
In Gironde, Marine Le Pen’s party obtained 32.92% of the points, an almost perfect tie with the New Popular Front which received 32.93% of the votes. On the other hand, it is the only department in the region to have elected, in the first round, a deputy. Edwige Diaz thus recovers her post, in the 11th constituency of Gironde. In Dordogne or Landes, the RN is also gaining ground. In Dordogne, the candidates from the four constituencies all advance to the second round, at the top of the first ballot. On the other hand, in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques, Marine Le Pen’s party only comes out on top in two out of six constituencies.
A rejection of the elites
Can we say that far-right ideas are taking root in Aquitaine, in areas traditionally anchored on the left? Not necessarily, says political scientist Ludovic Renard, who describes an RN vote “catch everything”. “Some of the ideas of the National Rally do not speak to all categories of people. However, we have been able to see that the party manages to attract different social classes, and in particular public service employees.”
Feeling of abandonment, disappearance of public services, development of the LGV to the detriment of daily train lines… “Many RN voters do not necessarily say that this party is better, but that those in power need to be changed. It is a very anti-elite vote, a form of counter-culture.. We want to believe in another concept of power. Many voters want to turn the table, even if they do not agree with the proposed program.
A vote that has a wide reach among voters, and which, according to the political scientist, could pose a problem in the second round.We cannot please everyone, not all ideas are necessarily shared on the economy, immigration, foreign policy.”
There is a lot of talk about a protest vote; for many, this vote is a way of telling themselves that we have the power to remove those who are in power.
Ludovic RenardPolitical scientist
Many triangular
The National Rally came first in 17 constituencies out of the 28 in Aquitaine. The left won in ten constituencies: nine for the Popular Front, plus a tenth, in the 3rd constituency of Pyrénées-Atlantiques, for David Habib, dissident left-wing candidate.
Twenty-one triangular ones are possible, even if New Popular Front candidates have already withdrawn to block the National Rally. Like Marie-Laure Lafargue, who came 3rd in her Landes constituency and who withdrew, following the national instructions given by the union of the left.
Poorly readable instructions
Indeed, Jean-Luc Mélenchon immediately declared himself in favor of withdrawing the NFP candidacies of those who came third in this first round.Not a single vote must go to the National Rally“, also declared Prime Minister Gabriel Attal. Before also calling for the withdrawal of candidates, “whose maintenance in third position would have led to the election of a National Rally MP, facing another candidate who defends, like us, the values of the Republic“.
Former Prime Minister Horizons Édouard Philippe played the card of “ni ni” between the RN and LFI. For the LR, François-Xavier Bellamy pointed out the danger that the extreme left represents for the country.
Calls to withdraw can work against the extreme right, believes Ludovic Renard. “We are not in lands favorable to the RN, he recalls. But the national instructions, which are complex, must still be readable and understood.“
Case-by-case strategies
“Politicians will have to form electoral alliances to retain power, but not to exercise it together,” he continues. A fundamental work, which will be played out “constituency by constituency“, continues the political scientist, where everyone will have to adapt to local specificities.
“In Gironde, many Macronists are former socialists, they can play intermediaries. We often observe a hatred between LFI and the other left-wing candidates, with the exception of Nicolas Thierry (EELV – NFP candidate on the 2nd constituency, editor’s note) who gets along well with Loïc Prudhomme“, illustrates Ludovic Renard.
There will be national messages, but it is the deputies who will speak to the political apparatuses. It will be decided by hundreds of voices, we will have to convince.
Ludovic Renard,political scientist
Each territory has its own uniqueness. Thus, in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques, candidate Inaki Echaniz (NFP) came out on top in the 4th constituency. He is in a runoff with RN candidate Sylviane Lopez, who came 2nd, and Résistons candidate Jean Lassalle. The latter has already announced that he will remain in the second round.
A maintenance which could however work in favor of the candidate of the New Popular Front, estimated Sunday evening on our set the political scientist, Jean Petaux. “We can imagine that Jean Lassalle’s voters are closer to those of the National Rally than the New Popular Front. So, he could at least fix votes which would not go to the RN candidate. If he withdraws, it could put Mr. Ichaniz in difficulty.“
Complex strategies, almost case by case, which should emerge during the week. Back on the campaign trail, the candidates only have until Friday to once again beat the campaign.
