War in Ukraine: What could missiles hit in Russia?

Russia says Ukrainian forces fired US-made Atacms missiles into its territory shortly after the White House gave them permission.

A military installation located in Bryansk, in western Russia, around 100 kilometers from the border, was reportedly damaged.

According to BBC sources, UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles were used against targets inside Russia.

Jonathan Beale, BBC defense correspondent, said: “A few months ago, a defense source told me that the first reports of Britain's Storm Shadow being used to strike a target Russia's interior would only be known after the event. »

“It is now a done deal, although the government [britannique] still hasn't officially confirmed it – these are just sources.

President Joe Biden had previously barred Ukraine from using long-range U.S.-supplied missiles to strike inside Russia, out of fear of an escalation of the conflict.

It is believed that France could also allow Ukrainian forces to fire their Scalp missiles – the equivalent of Storm Shadows – at Russia.

According to the US think tank Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian forces could strike hundreds of military targets in western Russia.

However, military analysts warn that using missiles for strikes inside Russia may not be very effective for Ukraine, as the targets it most wants to hit have been pushed out of range.

The Army Tactical Missile System (Atacms) is an American-made ballistic missile that is fired from the ground, using mobile rocket launchers such as the Himars and M270 – both supplied to Ukraine .

The Atacms has a maximum range of 300 km, flies at three times the speed of sound and has been in service in the United States since 1986.

It can carry two types of weaponry: one is a single high-explosive warhead with a maximum weight of 220 kg; the other contains clusters of bombs which spread on impact over a wide area.

Storm Shadow is a cruise missile designed jointly by France and the United Kingdom. The French call it Scalp.

It flies at low altitude at speeds of over 965 km/h, following the contours of the ground before rising and falling vertically onto its target.

It is designed to penetrate targets with reinforced exteriors, such as underground bunkers, using a “precursor” that blasts hot metal through the wall, followed by a bomb that detonates at the same time. 'interior.

Both the Atacms and Storm Shadow/Scalp are high-precision guided missiles.

Ukrainian forces have used Atacms for more than a year against Russian forces inside Ukraine and against Russian bases near the border that are used to launch attacks against the country.

President Joe Biden feared that using these missiles against targets inside Russia would lead to an escalation of the conflict and push the United States to become more involved in the war.

On November 19, two days after the president relaxed this rule, Ukrainian forces fired missiles at an ammunition warehouse in Karachev, in Russia's Bryansk region, some 100 km from the Ukrainian border in the northeast. from kyiv.

Ukrainian forces did not specify the type of missile used, but U.S. officials confirmed they were Atacms.

Russia said its air defenses shot down five missiles, one of which was damaged.

U.S. officials said Russia may have intercepted only two of eight missiles.

Russia has warned of an “appropriate” and “tangible” response if missiles are used on targets on its territory.

“kyiv's use of long-range missiles to attack our territory would represent the direct involvement of the United States and its satellites in hostilities against Russia, as well as a radical change in the essence and nature of the conflict “, declared the Russian Foreign Ministry.

The new White House policy was presented as a move to support Ukrainian troops inside Russia, who currently occupy about 500 square kilometers of territory in Kursk province and expect to face to a counterattack by Russian and North Korean troops.

The arrival of around 10,000 North Korean special forces troops in Russia to fight Ukraine is believed to have contributed to Mr Biden's change of stance.

The Institute for the Study of War has identified 245 military installations in Russia that are within striking range of Atacms missiles, including 16 air bases.

Because it can cause explosions over a wide area, the cluster warhead could be used effectively against troop concentrations and aircraft parked in the open at air bases.

The impact of Atacms strikes on the Russian military may be limited, according to Matthew Savill of the UK-based think tank the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi).

Ukraine would especially like to destroy Russian planes that have launched cruise missiles and glide bombs against its troops on the front line and against civilian infrastructure such as power plants.

However, he says: “Most of the best targets – the helicopters and planes armed with glide bombs that attack Ukrainian towns and troops in the north or in Kursk – have been moved to air bases beyond the range of the Atacms. .. Some of these planes are based more than 1,000 km from Ukraine.”

For months, Ukraine has asked the United Kingdom and France for permission to fire Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles at targets inside Russia.

In the past, its forces have used them against targets in Russian-occupied Crimea, for example striking the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol.

The US decision to allow Ukraine to use Atacms on targets inside Russia paves the way for the UK and France to do the same with the Storm Shadow/ Scalp, says the BBC's Jonathan Beale.

Storm Shadow/Scalp differ from Atacms as they are designed for use on underground bunkers and hardened targets. Unlike Atacms, they cannot perform strikes that cause damage over a wide area.

According to Mr Savill, they therefore have “little use against troops in the open or aircraft exposed on an airfield”.

“The Ukrainians will be looking to hit the most well-protected targets, such as munitions depots or headquarters, so you shouldn't expect to see a large number of Storm Shadow strikes right away,” he adds.

Storm Shadow/Scalp missiles are also more difficult to fire than Atacms, as they must be launched from an aircraft. Ukraine has already used its Sukhoi bombers to launch them.

According to Savill, if the targets are inside Russia, the planes will have to approach Russian air defenses on the border, and jammers and decoys will have to be used to protect them.

The United Kingdom and France have reportedly supplied only a few hundred missiles to Ukraine.