We achieved yesterday’s goal of going 3-2 or better with our free NHL picks. I have plenty more hockey predictions for you in this article, so buckle up!
CHOICE 1: The Avalanche “moneyline”
According to the “Duel of the Burning Teams” betting system, we must select the Colorado Avalanche to enjoy victory in Washington. Most bookmakers currently offer a line between -140 and -135, which equates to a range between 1.71 and 1.74 in decimal format.
What is this betting strategy? Its rules are quite simple and yet very effective. It is recommended to bet on the team abroad if it has just collected one or two consecutive victories and if it faces a local club sailing on a streak of at least three triumphs.
Does Colorado really fit that description? Let’s check.
The Avalanche have won just one game in a row, while Washington is coming off three wins in a row. So we have the green light to bet on Colorado here.
Let’s see how this betting angle has performed over the past two campaigns. In the 2022-2023 season, we obtained a gain of 4.48 units via 42 bets. Last year we had 2.43 units out of 62 bets. Finally, so far this season we have accumulated a win of 4.10 units on 10 bets.
If you do the math and combine all of these results, that means we generated a total profit of 11.01 units via 114 bets, which works out to a nice 9.7% ROI. Not bad, right?
I’m also a big believer in the “revenge” factor, especially when the teams met not too long ago. In this case, the Capitals beat the Avalanche 5-2 just six days ago. I’m sure Colorado will look to avenge this loss and will succeed.
CHOICE 2: the Devils’ moneyline
I’ll lean on another solid NHL betting angle for my next pick. The strategy in question is called “Markers on Fire”; let me introduce you to how it works.
Let’s say you have an away team that has just scored at least four goals in each of their last three games. In this case, bet AGAINST her, since her attack should calm down today, based on historical data.
Let’s focus on the Carolina Hurricanes for a moment. Today they visit the Devils. In each of their previous three matches, the “Canes” scored exactly four goals. So, under the “Markers on Fire” system, we have to rule them out.
That’s why my second NHL prediction is: The New Jersey Devils will beat the Hurricanes tonight at the Prudential Center.
Not only has this betting strategy performed well in previous years, but it has also worked well this season. Indeed, we made four bets following his recommendations and, even following more underdogs than favorites, we maintained an astonishing 7-4 record for a return on investment of +23%.
Now the following three picks will not be supported by any of my 10 NHL betting systems. Rather, they come from my own analysis of the context or from my mathematical model which offers fairly precise predictions.
CHOICE 3: the Senators’ moneyline
Pick 3 goes to the Ottawa Senators to clinch victory against the Vegas Golden Knights. The moneyline is between -140 and -160, a range between 1.625 and 1.71 in decimal format.
Vegas players may have tired legs after a tough match played last night in Toronto. They suffered a 3-0 shutout, which must also be discouraging. The club has now lost four of its last six matches and must therefore do better.
Meanwhile, the Senators have played just one game in the last four days. They are in the middle of a three-game losing streak. I have to admit that I’m also concerned that Vegas has won nine of the last 10 meetings between these two clubs.
Still, I like Ottawa’s chances. Based on player feedback, the team will be motivated and ready to go. Captain Brady Tkachuk said: “No more damn excuses. Right now, every match is crucial.” Thomas Chabot said the first two periods of the clash against Edmonton were the worst two of the club’s entire season.
I expect to see a super motivated Ottawa team that will bounce back with a win tonight at the Canadian Tire Centre.
PICK 4: over 2.5 shots for Martin Necas
The best and easiest way to beat the oddsmakers is to use proposition bets. This is where I spend a lot of my attention, as it has been my main source of income when it comes to sports betting. Let me share one of my premium hockey picks today, which happens to be a prop bet.
The option in question concerns the Hurricanes-Devils game. In this game, I’m betting Carolina’s Martin Necas will take more than 2.5 shots on goal. Many bookmakers have a line hovering around -155, but I was able to find one offering -122, which was a steal! If you’re more familiar with decimal odds, we’re talking about 1.82 odds.
In November, Necas exceeded 2.5 shots on goal in seven of his nine games. He wasn’t as successful in October, as he succeeded three times out of nine, but I placed more importance on what happened this month.
Sure, the Devils are allowing the seventh-fewest shots per game on average, but given the Czech player’s recent performance, my math model and I really like this bet.
PICK 5: more than 1.5 goals in the first period of the Sharks-Blues match
Yesterday we had success with the first period totals, as we won both bets. Last season we also made solid profits in this market. I have received several messages from followers who really appreciate these suggestions. So, let me share which one I like by far.
With my fifth hockey choice, I predict more than 1.5 goals in the first period of the Sharks-Blues meeting.
Let’s assume you would have made this bet in each of San Jose’s last five games. You would have posted a 4-1 record.
On the Blues side, we observe a similar phenomenon. In fact, in five of the last seven duels, the “greater than” option had the upper hand in the first period.
In the league, the Sharks have allowed the second most goals, while the Blues don’t fare much better being the sixth most generous. I know these teams’ offenses aren’t the best, but my mathematical model and I predict that at least two goals will be scored in the first period of this game. So, let’s make this bet!
I’m so stupid!
Here’s a little secret for you: I haven’t been very happy with the number of views my NHL videos are generating on YouTube recently. I also felt like my articles in the newspaper could also get more exposure
This was all my fault. I knew I had to do something about it.
I thought sports bettors like you probably preferred getting 4-5 quick picks per video/article rather than having a long video/article featuring a single prediction. I feel so stupid when I think about it now.
Yesterday I shared a bet for each of the five league matches and we significantly increased the number of views on YouTube.
Did you like this new format? If so, I invite you to spread the word to your friends, family members and co-workers about Professor MJ’s betting picks in the newspapers and on YouTube.
I’ll be back tomorrow and I’ll be there to let you know my first choice in each of the two games on the menu: Jets-Penguins, as well as Sabres-Ducks.
See you tomorrow, informed sports bettors!
