COT'Hebdo Cereals | Fears of escalation in Ukraine drive up soft wheat prices

COT'Hebdo Cereals | Fears of escalation in Ukraine drive up soft wheat prices
COT'Hebdo Cereals | Fears of escalation in Ukraine drive up soft wheat prices

THE prix of soft wheat have increased their prices between November 13 and 20, 2024 on Euronext and indirectly on the French physical market, given the concerns emerging in recent days about a potential escalation in Ukraine.

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kyiv received authorization from the UNITED STATES to use missiles long range to strike Russian territory, and used it. For its part, various media report, without confirmation however, that the Russians responded by using intercontinental missiles on theUkrainewithout a nuclear warhead. But for now, the circulation of cereals in the region is not disturbed. A longer-term bullish element should be noted. Reuters media reports that the farmers Russians will reduce their achievements of wheat this year, due to the setbacks suffered last year. They will turn to crops deemed more profitable. The Russian authorities could thus review their quotasexportation sharply down in the first half of 2025 compared to last year. On the French physical market, port bonuses rise very slightly in price, driven by the interest of importers Moroccans. In this context, a small stream of business is reported. However, trade is not widespread, due to strong international competition. On the interior, the millers remain in demand, over the first half of 2025 but also and above all over the next harvest. But the offer does not always follow. In fact, the batches of quality are not hitting the streets this year, and the sellers are not rushing. On the side of pet food manufacturerssome additional purchases are reported. Breton animal nutrition has some needs to cover.

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The costs of fret fluvial did not change between November 13 and 20. On the basin of the Seinenothing new to report compared to last week. There are numerous quality problems with the goods transported, whether in terms of weevild’ergotof content protein and of specific weight. The activity atexportation remains gloomy. So much so that we always record periods of technical unemployment at chargers on the ports of Rouen and of . Since November 15, some storage organisms of their hinterlands no longer allocate slots loading until the end of the year, one month before the usual confectioners' break. On the Rhinethe river level returns to normal thanks to the latest precipitation.

During the closing conference of the 2024 general assembly ofRiver companies of (E2F) which was held on October 15 at the Nework Salon in , its general delegate president, Didier Leandri, depicted a mixed year 2024 marked by the Olympic Games. THE trafic fluvial was not “obviously extremely flourishing on a business level” with goods traffic trending rather downward compared to last year, in particular for grain trafficking and trafficking of materials, indicates the press release. The exercise was also marked by “a catastrophic climatic episode in the North, strikes and crossing Île-de-France made very difficult by the Sully bridge accident” in Paris. Traffic, however, showed “a more favorable turn from the beginning of autumn 2024, with signs of recovery in the area of ​​river tourism. “We expect a very good, even exceptional, year in 2025, probably due to the exposure linked to the Olympic Games”stressed Didier Leandri.

As part of the agreement signed on November 5 between the State, the Burgundy-Franche-Comté region and Waterways of France (VNF) to strengthen the river sector and the management of water resources, modernization projects will be carried out, such as the remote control of the locks of theYonneaccording to information published on the site ''info-chalon.com''. They aim to reduce CO2 emissions and optimize the region's freight capacities. Thus, a study on the economic benefits for the ports of Pagny, Chalon-sur-Saône and Mâcon will be carried out. As a reminder, Burgundy-Franche-Comté has 1,300 km of waterways including 250 km of rivers. large size (Yonne and Grande Saône), suitable for freight. Around 2.3 Mt of goods are transported annually on the river network of the Burgundy-Franche-Comté region, with 0.8 Mt on the Yonne (port of Gron) and 1.5 Mt on the Saône (ports of Pagny, Chalon and Mâcon).

Adèle d’Humières and Kévin Cler

But

Good returns in France are confirmed

The prices of but rose on Euronext between November 13 and 20, as a result of concerns about the escalation of the war in Ukraine. In France, reports of yields remain satisfactory, reassuring buyers about the available supply. The market is therefore more selling in the near future until March 2025. Be careful, however: the Breton FABs are cautious, due to reported cases of avian flu. Consumers in the North EU are covered, but those beyond the Pyrenees are positioning themselves. The port remains calm. Some purchases of so-called green corn are reported in . Note that sorghum yields would be better than expected in certain sectors. We should also point out that the lack of trucks to go from France to Spain, a situation which could last until the end of 2024, is penalizing trade.

Feed barley

Italian interest reported

The courses of thefeed barley rose between sessions from one week to the next, in the wake of soft wheat. Port premiums are firm, taking into account a small buyer interest. On the interior, the main information is the strong Italian demand.

Malting barley

Contrasted evolution

The prices ofmalting barley on the French physical market followed a stable to slightly downward trend between November 13 and 20 in winter barley in harvest 2024. But a sharp upward movement in harvest 2025 is observed. For the spring variety, prices also increased, more markedly in the 2025 harvest than in the 2024 harvest. The market is hardly active, with the majority of quotes being nominal.

Durum wheat

Courses not very scalable

The quotes of durum wheat remain stable from one week to the next. Italian interest is still reported, but the offer is rare. Algeria purchased between 160,000 t and 180,000 t of durum wheat, January-February loadings, at $348-360/t C & F. Canadian origin would be included in the purchase.

The editorial staff

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