This year's walnut harvest in North America's walnut stronghold, California, is coming to an end. But huge uncertainty remains over the actual quantity of the harvest, as Jens Borchert of PALM Nuts & More Nuss und Trockenfrucht GmbH & Co. KG, a specialist import partner, explains. “The initial estimate was around 670,000 tonnes, but figures lower than 600,000 or even 550,000 tonnes have been mentioned in the meantime. This would be 10% lower than the USDA forecast from early September and 27% lower than in 2023. However, these are still only unconfirmed forecasts. According to exporters, this year's quality is partly lower than last year. »
Several factors explain this expected drop in the harvest, continues Borchert. “First, the trees require some winter rest, but the temperatures haven't been cold enough this year. In addition, flowering took place very late. Another element is the lower price level of the previous season, which pushed many producers to reduce the use of fertilizers and irrigation. In addition, many aging orchards have been abandoned or uprooted, thus affecting productivity. In the north, California's main production region, yields are expected to be relatively good, while the south could suffer massive losses. Likewise, the desired sizes (30 mm and above) for cracking will likely be rare this year. » The last alternative merchandise was sold at the beginning of November, and the first arrivals of the new harvest are not expected until January.
According to Borchert, there are few alternatives to California walnuts. “In France, significant losses of up to 30% are expected in the Grenoble region, and sometimes even total losses in Périgord. Fresh Chilean nuts are generally released to the market between April and June, which helps cover the start of Christmas sales in Europe. However, this year, stocks apparently ran out earlier than expected. In Eastern Europe and Italy, heat and drought caused significant damage. In Spain, heavy rainfall during the harvest also had an impact. In Portugal, conditions during the growing phase were favorable, but heavy rains at the start of the harvest limited the quantity of merchandise available. In China, current harvests seem abundant and are often exported to Turkey, and sometimes even to Europe. However, China still suffers from an image problem on local markets. »
Growing competition in the global nut market
The Chandler variety, representing approximately 50% of the market, remains at the top of walnut cultivation in California, followed by the Howard variety, mainly sold in the shell. In contrast, the old Hartley variety has almost disappeared over time. Borchert explains: “In terms of quantity, the 2023/2024 season was marked by a bountiful harvest, especially for walnut kernels. This led to low prices and significant promotions, not only in Germany, but throughout Europe. Competition intensified at the end of the season with the arrival of producers such as Chile, Australia and Hungary, who offer increasingly large volumes. This allows distributors to diversify their supplies, but also causes problems and losses in almost all producing countries this year. »
In the long term, overseas walnut production tends to lose importance, while European production increases, Borchert summarizes. “In Germany, we are seeing more and more producers wanting to turn to walnut cultivation. Globally, I see little growth potential for Chile as walnuts have lost their appeal to hazelnuts and other tree crops. In California, a similar trend is visible, with annual crops like tomatoes gaining popularity because they require less upfront investment. We have also noticed overproduction in this area, which seems to be regulating itself little by little. Last year's market prices were far from sustainable or cost-covering, but next season could offer attractive production prices. The crucial question is to what extent these higher prices could dampen sales. »
Jens Borchert closely followed the latest market trends at this year's DOGK in Düsseldorf
Images : Mariani of California
For more information:
Jens Borchert
PALM Nuts & More Nut and Dry Fruit GmbH & Co.KG
Lindenstrasse 17
D-21244 Buchholz/Nordheide
Such. : +49 4181 9091 0
[email protected]
https://www.palm-nutsandmore.de
