American envoy Amos Hochstein arrived in Beirut yesterday to try to finalize a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah. The United States estimates the chances of success at more than 50%, while an Israeli security source speaks of a “positive potential due to the security conditions and the Hezbollah situation.” The draft agreement provides for a 60-day trial period during which Hezbollah should withdraw beyond the Litani line, leaving southern Lebanon to the forces of the Lebanese army and UNIFIL alone. At the end of this period, if the agreement is respected, Israeli forces would withdraw from southern Lebanon.
“We have a real opportunity to end the conflict. This is the time to make a decision,” Hochstein told Lebanese media. “We are determined to do everything possible to work with Lebanon and Israel to end the conflict.”
Two major sticking points remain: the self-defense clause and the composition of the committee responsible for overseeing the implementation of Resolution 1701. According to Sky News Arabia, new language stipulates that “each party has the right to self-defense in the event of attack, provided that the United States guarantees that Israel will not carry out pre-emptive strikes.
In Israel, Iran is believed to have given Hezbollah the green light to agree to a ceasefire, likely to send a positive signal to President-elect Donald Trump. If the agreement goes through, it would be the first time that Hezbollah has decoupled the situation in Lebanon from that in Gaza, thereby abandoning one of its fundamental demands.
The enforcement mechanism would be more robust than that of 2006, with the involvement of the United Kingdom, Germany, France and other actors. Israel would nevertheless retain its right to intervene in the event of a violation, a provision included in the arrangements. According to diplomatic sources cited by the Saudi daily “Al-Sharq al-Awsat”, despite the desire to move forward, “there is a serious fear that Netanyahu will end up rejecting the plan”.
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