Are we prepared enough to deal with an asteroid that has a 72% chance of colliding with Earth in 2038? According to NASA scientists and experts, there is still work to be done! When NASA presented a hypothetical scenario, developed by the Planetary Defense Coordination Office, to nearly 100 government officials, they discovered that their plan for countering an asteroid heading toward Earth had several “major gaps.”
Space officials have noted a reluctance to quickly implement necessary space missions. While methods for effectively informing the public of an impending disaster are not yet fully developed.
Among the participants, from federal agencies like the State Department and international organizations like the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs, 33 percent expressed doubts about humanity’s ability to launch a space mission to deflect a potentially dangerous asteroid. And 19% noted concerns about preparing for “reconnaissance missions.”
NASA conducts fifth test to assess whether we are prepared to deal with asteroids that could collide with Earth
Last April, NASA and the Federal Emergency Management Agency held an exercise at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland. This was to assess the government’s preparedness for a potentially dangerous asteroid heading toward Earth.
This exercise, the fifth of its kind, aimed to test the authorities’ ability to defend the planet from space. For the first time, international collaborators participated in this exercise.
In the hypothetical scenario, an asteroid would collide with Earth in 2038. The collision would have a 47% chance of affecting more than 1,000 people and an 8% chance of affecting more than a million. It could affect many cities in the United States, Europe and Africa, including Washington, Dallas, Madrid and Algiers.
According to the press release, in the proposed scenario, participants were not provided with information about the size, composition and long-term trajectory of the asteroid.
Furthermore, any further observations of the asteroid would theoretically have been delayed by at least seven months due to its passage behind the Sun, which would have constituted a critical loss of time.
Despite years of advance preparation, agencies would still have to work effectively to respond to an approaching asteroid, as NASA “planetary defense officer” Kelly Fast explained. “When you talk about planning a mission, whatever the nature of the space mission, it doesn’t happen overnight,” she explained.
Space officials have tested just one method to deflect an asteroid that could collide with Earth. This is the kinetic impact, which consists of sending a spacecraft to hit the asteroid and thus modify its trajectory. In 2022, NASA used this method by crashing a spacecraft into Dimorphos.
It is a small “moon” orbiting the asteroid Didymos, located approximately 6.8 million kilometers from Earth. This success shortened Dimorphos’ orbit by 32 minutes, NASA said.
But according to Kelly Fast, “it all depends on the asteroid. A single kinetic impactor might work for a smaller asteroid but not for something much larger. »
According to the presentation, some participants expressed doubts that sufficient funding would be available to deal with the threat of an asteroid. The decision-making process was “unclear,” according to the statement.
Authorities would also have a limited ability to gather more information about an approaching asteroid by sending a spacecraft near it, the reviewers concluded.
The presentation also warned of coordination challenges in disseminating information to the public about an approaching asteroid. They stressed the need to combat misinformation.
An anonymous participant emphasized: “It is important to maintain trust from the start of this event. Which means communicating early. »
Fast stressed the importance of making information accessible to the general public, avoiding language that is too technical or too specialized. The final exercise, which used the test data, recommended more testing of the new technology.
Fast also said people should feel reassured that scientists and agencies are working together to strategize in the event of an asteroid collision, even if that eventuality is unlikely.
The scenario was “just a chance to continue to explore these possibilities and our current level of preparedness, and identify how we can do better in the future.”
“It’s actually a good thing to talk about,” she said.
