Key information
- Europe has actively sought alternative suppliers of natural gas, reducing its dependence on Russian imports via Ukraine from 11 percent to 5 percent.
- Some European countries such as Slovakia and Austria have increased their imports from Russia, a move that analysts say may require the establishment of alternative shipping routes in the future.
- The United States could potentially fill the gap by increasing its LNG exports to Europe, which was discussed in a conversation between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the President-elect of the United States. United, Donald Trump.
The termination of the Russian natural gas transit contract by Ukraine on January 1, 2025 will significantly reshape Europe’s energy landscape. While the Kremlin pleads for an extension, urging European nations to influence Ukraine, kyiv remains steadfast in its refusal.
Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian natural gas was the cornerstone of European energy security. However, Moscow’s halting of deliveries of 80 billion cubic meters of gas in response to sanctions and payment disputes dealt a major blow to the European economy, the repercussions of which are still being felt today.
EU diversification efforts
Since 2021, Europe has actively sought alternative natural gas suppliers, reducing its dependence on Russian imports via Ukraine from 11 percent to 5 percent. This diversification has been driven by varying levels of engagement across EU countries. Germany and the Czech Republic have rapidly invested in liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, while others, such as Hungary, have doubled down on their dependence on Russia.
Slovakia and Austria have even increased their imports from Russia, a move that analysts say may require other routes to be set up in the future. Turkey is currently the only operational pipeline for Russian energy to Europe, outside of Ukraine.
Challenges ahead
If some European nations prefer to maintain Russian gas deliveries via Ukraine, it is difficult to reach consensus within the EU. However, experts say they are confident in the political will and supply chain capabilities of Europe to successfully complete this transition away from Ukrainian gas pipelines for Russian gas.
Some are calling for stronger EU action to discourage reliance on cheap Russian gas by implementing binding targets for phasing out pipeline imports. This would encourage investment in alternative energy projects to reliably meet European demand.
United States involvement
Although Russia has partially offset the decline in pipeline exports to Europe with LNG deliveries, further expansion appears unlikely due to Western sanctions. Current infrastructure limitations make full compensation for lost pipeline capacity unlikely.
The United States could potentially fill the gap by increasing its LNG exports to Europe, a possibility raised during a recent conversation between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the President-elect of the United States , Donald Trump.
Ukraine’s uncertain future
Ukraine faces its own complexities as the transit of Russian gas through its territory ends. The imminent termination of the contract has heightened fears of potential Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Finding other commercial uses for its dormant gas pipeline network remains a challenge, with proposed deals with Azerbaijan ultimately proving unsuccessful.
Analysts stress that any arrangement short of completely stopping the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine would send a negative signal to Europe, which could encourage other countries to resume imports through pipelines such as than Nord Stream. However, experts believe that the lack of political consensus in Germany regarding Russian gas imports reduces the likelihood of such a scenario. A deal providing for third-party deliveries via Ukraine’s pipelines could benefit all parties and boost commercial interest in Ukraine’s infrastructure.
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