This is not obvious in light of the latest Israeli strikes. At least ten dead yesterday, including Hezbollah’s main spokesperson, Mohamed Afif, a familiar figure within the Shiite movement. And Beirut was hit again this Monday evening. Two loud explosions were heard in the city center. There would be at least four deaths.
For a little over a week, Israel has intensified its bombing campaign. But behind the scenes, negotiations are progressing.
The Americans sent the Lebanese authorities a five-page, thirteen-point plan. The text notably provides for a 60-day truce and the deployment of the army in southern Lebanon. As usual, the head of Parliament Nabih Berri plays the role of intermediary with his Hezbollah allies.
A major change has occurred in recent days: Hezbollah now agrees to dissociate the war in Gaza from its conflict with Israel. He no longer demands an end to hostilities in the Palestinian enclave before discussing a truce. This has been the case since October 8, 2023, the day after the Hamas attack and the start of the Israeli response.
This is crucial because the hope of a ceasefire in Gaza is currently very slim. Benjamin Netanyahu clearly does not want a “truce for hostages” agreement which would jeopardize his coalition. Far-right ministers could leave his government. The Israeli leader, on the other hand, is more open to signing peace in Lebanon.
Israel may want to wait until Trump’s inauguration
Furthermore, Hezbollah has suffered an unprecedented offensive since the pager attacks two months ago but, despite the loss of numerous executives, the discussion channels remain open. Exchanges are much more laborious with Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
In Washington, we no longer believe in progress in Gaza anyway. The Biden administration prefers to concentrate its efforts on Lebanon. Its only hope of salvaging a little its balance sheet in the Middle East. His special envoy Amos Hochstein will be in Beirut tomorrow for a new visit.
With a risk for Biden and the Democrats: Israel could be tempted to wait for the inauguration of Donald Trump on January 20 to offer the Republican a diplomatic success upon his return to the White House.
There remains a major obstacle to overcome to validate this agreement. As has been said, Hezbollah is ready to make concessions. He would be willing to withdraw his troops from southern Lebanon, in accordance with UN Resolution 1701 which ended the 2006 war.
But the Shiite movement does not want to give in on one point: a demand from Israel to act as it wishes if Hezbollah breaks the agreement and tries to rearm. This is the main sticking point at the moment. Netanyahu has just declared this Monday evening that Israel will continue to carry out operations against Hezbollah, even in the event of an agreement.
Added in the background is the humanitarian crisis in Lebanon. Nearly a million and a half displaced people in a country already on artificial respiration. With new tensions between pro and anti-Hezbollah. Lebanon does not want to be forced to sign an agreement with a gun to its head, and in fear of new Israeli operations.
