Just weeks before Donald Trump arrives at the White House, the Biden administration has authorized Ukraine to use long-range missiles on Russian territory. A strategic turnaround which could weigh on future negotiations with Moscow.
A new red line erased. The United States made a strategic shift in its support for Ukraine by announcing, this Sunday, November 17, that it authorized kyiv to strike Russian territory with American long-range missiles.
Until now, the Ukrainian army was only authorized to use these long-range ATACMS missiles to strike Russian targets in occupied parts of Ukraine, including annexed Crimea, and in Russian border regions directly linked to operations. military from Moscow.
“For the first time, kyiv will be able to strike behind the Russian military system, 200 or 300 kilometers from the border,” General Jérôme Pellistrandi, defense consultant for our channel, explains to BFMTV.com. Among kyiv's potential targets: “logistics posts, oil depots and even air bases”.
No “game changer”
These strikes will “disorganize Russia's supply chains of men, equipment and ammunition but do not necessarily constitute a game changer capable of reversing the course of the war”, nuance Cyrille Bret, researcher associated with the Montaigne and Jacques-Delors institutes.
The American decision indeed comes very late in the conflict, a thousand days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Tanks, planes then missiles: the United States and the West have only made their military capabilities available little by little.
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“The Biden administration (…) has fallen into the trap of believing that we can ‘manage’ a war rather than lead it,” underlines Andrew Michta, expert at the Atlantic Council think tank on the social network Instead of giving Ukraine what it needed to win at a time when its morale was high and Russian forces had no logistics, no defenses, no leadership, we allowed this conflict to turn into a a war of attrition”, regrets the analyst.
Russian climbing
Two months before his departure from the White House and the return of Donald Trump to business, Joe Biden has finally ended up granting a request made for a very long time by Volodymyr Zelensky.
This turnaround comes at a time when the conflict is experiencing a new escalation with the arrival of North Korean soldiers on the Russian front, according to Ukrainian and American authorities. By giving ballast to the Ukrainians, “Joe Biden wants to send a message to Putin: 'if you internationalize the conflict, I authorize them to go further'”, deciphers Guillaume Ancel, former officer and military analyst, on our set.
According to him, the Russian drone and missile attack on Ukraine during the night from Saturday to Sunday could also have precipitated the American announcement. “Knowing that there will be an end to the fighting after the inauguration of Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin is increasing his violence. For his part, Joe Biden also wants to show that he knows how to pull out all the stops,” he explains.
The American context of transition between Donald Trump and Joe Biden must indeed be taken into account, adds Cyrille Bret. “American presidents often use this transition period to take initiatives where electoral or legislative control is no longer exercised,” explains the geopolitologist. “This decision is the sign of a Biden administration without future but without inhibition,” he believes.
Balance of power in negotiations
The strengthening of the Ukrainian arsenal finally comes at a time when the prospects for Russian-Ukrainian negotiations are becoming more and more concrete. President-elect Donald Trump made ending the war in Ukraine a campaign promise, going so far as to claim he could resolve the conflict “in 24 hours.” This Saturday, the Ukrainian president himself declared that he wanted to end the war “by diplomatic means” in 2025.
“Joe Biden wants to establish a less unfavorable balance of power for Ukraine before entering into negotiations,” continues Cyrille Bret. Concretely, it is a question of “protecting Ukrainian advances” and “avoiding any too significant Russian advance”.
According to the New York Times, the American missiles should first be used in the Russian border region of Kursk partly controlled by kyiv. “This is Ukraine’s only major offensive victory since the start of the war. For a barter with Russia, it is an important territory to keep,” underlines Cyrille Bret.
But for the Ukrainian army, time is running out. Next January, Donald Trump will be able to undo what Joe Biden did.
