Two key advisers to Donald Trump have presented him with a plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine – if he wins the presidential election – which involves telling Ukraine it will no longer receive American weapons unless it begins peace talks.
The United States would at the same time warn Moscow that any refusal to negotiate would result in increased U.S. support for Ukraine, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, one of Moscow’s advisers, said in an interview. . Trump on national security.
Under the plan developed by Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz, who both served as chiefs of staff on Mr. Trump’s National Security Council during his presidency from 2017 to 2021, there would be a ceasefire based on the battle lines that prevail during the peace talks.
They presented their strategy to Mr. Trump and the former president responded favorably, Mr. Fleitz said. “I’m not pretending that he agreed with this strategy or approved every word of it, but we were happy to get the reactions that we got,” he said.
However, Mr Trump’s spokesman Steven Cheung said that only statements made by Mr Trump or authorised members of his campaign should be considered official.
The strategy laid out by Kellogg and Fleitz is the most detailed plan yet by associates of Mr. Trump, who has said he could quickly resolve the war in Ukraine if he defeats President Joe Biden in the election of November 5, although he did not discuss specific details.
The proposal would mark a radical shift in America’s position on the war and would face opposition from European allies and Mr. Trump’s Republican Party.
The Kremlin and Ukraine’s foreign ministry did not respond to requests for comment on the draft.
NATO MEMBERSHIP ON PENDING
The main elements of the plan were outlined in a publicly available research paper released by the America First Policy Institute, a pro-Trump think tank where Kellogg and Fleitz hold leadership positions.
Mr. Kellogg said it would be crucial to quickly bring Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table if Mr. Trump wins the election.
“We say to the Ukrainians: ‘You have to come to the table, and if you don’t come, the support from the United States will dry up,’” he said. “And you say to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin: ‘He has to come to the table and if you don’t come, we will give the Ukrainians everything they need to kill you on the ground.’
According to their research paper, Moscow would also be incentivized to come to the negotiating table by promising Ukraine membership in NATO for an extended period.
Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine in February 2022. Despite some Russian advances in recent months, the front lines have barely moved since the end of that year, despite tens of thousands of deaths on both sides. in fierce trench warfare, the bloodiest battles in Europe since the Second World War.
Mr Fleitz said Ukraine did not need to formally cede territory to Russia as part of their plan. However, Ukraine is unlikely to regain effective control of its entire territory in the short term.
“We fear that this war will become a war of attrition that will kill an entire generation of young men,” he said.
Lasting peace in Ukraine would require additional security guarantees for Ukraine, Mr. Kellogg and Mr. Fleitz said. Mr. Fleitz added that “arming Ukraine to the teeth” would likely be a key part of these guarantees.
“President Trump has repeatedly stated that one of the priorities of his second term will be to quickly negotiate an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine,” said Mr. Cheung, Mr. Trump’s spokesperson. . “The war between Russia and Ukraine would never have happened if Donald J. Trump was president. It’s so sad.”
Joe Biden’s campaign said Mr Trump was not interested in opposing Mr Putin.
“Donald Trump is full of praise for Vladimir Putin at every opportunity and has made it clear that he will not oppose Putin or defend democracy,” the president said. campaign spokesperson James Singer.
UPPER HAND
Some Republicans will be reluctant to fund more resources for Ukraine under this plan. The United States has spent more than $70 billion on military aid to Ukraine since Moscow’s invasion.
“What (Trump supporters) want to do is cut aid, or even turn off the spigot,” said Charles Kupchan, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Mr. Putin said this month that the war could end if Ukraine agreed to give up its NATO membership ambitions and cede four eastern and southern provinces claimed by Russia.
At a UN Security Council meeting last week, the French and British ambassadors reiterated their view that peace can only be sought when Russia withdraws from Ukrainian territory, a position kyiv shares .
Several analysts also expressed concern that Kellogg and Fleitz’s plan could give Moscow the advantage in the talks.
“What Mr. Kellogg is describing is a process that seeks to have Ukraine give up all of the territory that Russia currently occupies,” said Daniel Fried, a former deputy secretary of state who worked on the policy at towards Russia.
In a podcast interview last week, Trump ruled out committing U.S. troops to Ukraine and was skeptical about making Ukraine a NATO member. He has indicated he would quickly cut aid to the Eastern European country if elected.
Mr. Biden has consistently advocated for increased aid to Ukraine, and his administration supports that country’s eventual membership in NATO. In early June, Mr. Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy signed a ten-year bilateral security agreement
