Italy is preparing to face a sudden intense cold spell, a foretaste of winter that will bring a drastic weather change.
The forecasts indicate the approach of a glacial front coming from the Arctic regions of northern Europe, which will determine a phase of bad weather characterized by intense rains, storm winds and even snowfall at low altitudes, quite unusual phenomena for mid-November. From Monday, November 18, the first signs of this meteorological deterioration will be observed, with precipitation which will mainly affect the Tyrrhenian sectors.
Tuscany, Lazio, Campania and Calabria will be the regions most affected, with a risk of violent thunderstorms, especially in coastal and inland areas.
However, it is between Wednesday 20 and Thursday 21 November that the decided entry of an Arctic front will cause a general deterioration of the meteorological framework, opening the way to a phase of intense cold and widespread bad weather across the entire peninsula. .
Anticyclone receding
The current synoptic configuration shows the progressive weakening of the Azores anticyclone, which will allow the Arctic cold to penetrate without obstacles into the Mediterranean.
This scenario will favor the formation of a deep cyclone in the Tyrrhenian Sea, which will activate intense southern currents.
The contrast between cold air of Arctic origin and warmer, humid air masses coming from the south will create ideal conditions for violent thunderstorms, with showers that could be particularly heavy over north-central regions. The first to be affected will be the northern regions, with Piedmont, Lombardy, Liguria and Veneto which could experience snowfall at very low altitude, or even in the plains.
This is an exceptional event, because the first fall snowfalls generally only occur at mountain altitudes above 1000 meters. This time around, however, the intense cold will bring snowflakes down to 300-400 meters, with accumulations possible in northeastern piedmont areas.
Intense bad weather elsewhere too
The deterioration of weather conditions will not spare central Italy either. From November 21, Tuscany, Umbria and Marche will be affected by an intense phase of rains, which could take on a deluge character, especially along the coast and in areas of the Apennines.
Strong sirocco winds will blow along the Adriatic, with gusts possibly exceeding 70-80 km/h, causing storms on exposed coasts. In the south, the bad weather will arrive a few hours late, but when the cold front reaches Campania, Puglia, Basilicata and Calabria around November 22, we should expect an intensification of precipitation, accompanied by violent winds of mistral. This weather scenario will lead to a significant drop in temperatures, with values falling well below the seasonal average, reaching 5-7°C even on the southern coasts.
Widespread snow across the Apennines and Alps
The most recent forecasts confirm that the disturbance will bring snow not only to the Alps, but also to the central Apennines.
Here, the snow altitude could drop to 600-700 meters, affecting areas like Abruzzo and Molise, where several centimeters of fresh snow are expected to accumulate.
In the Alps, on the other hand, snowfall will be greater, with accumulations capable of exceeding 50 cm above 1200 meters, creating ideal conditions for the early opening of the ski season.
Stormy winds and storms: risk for navigation
In addition to cold and rain, the weather will be characterized by strong winds, which will blow with storm intensity over a large part of the Mediterranean Sea.
The most violent gusts are expected along the coasts of Sardinia and Sicily, where the mistral could reach peaks of 90-100 km/h, causing waves 4-5 meters high.
An increase in maritime unrest is expected also along the Tyrrhenian coasts, where the sirocco will raise the sea, generating difficult conditions for navigation. Maritime connections between the large islands and the mainland could face delays or cancellations, particularly ferries connecting Sicily to Calabria and Sardinia to Tuscany. The situation is constantly monitored, but boaters and fishing boats are advised to exercise caution.
Uncertain development: what can we expect in the long term?
The period following the arrival of this disturbance will be characterized by great variability.
Some weather models indicate the possibility of a new outbreak of cold air towards the end of November, which could extend the bad weather phase until the first days of December.
However, the exact trajectory of this second wave is still uncertain, and it will be necessary to await further updates in the coming days to define the meteorological development more precisely. In the meantime, the invitation addressed to the population is to pay attention to weather warnings and follow the indications provided by the competent authorities, especially with regard to road traffic in mountainous areas, where snowfall could cause considerable inconvenience.
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