Over the past four years, Iranian crude oil exports have more than tripled; It was 400,000 barrels per day in 2020, then increased to more than 1.5 million barrels per day today, with almost all shipments going to China, according to the U.S. Information Agency on energy.
Trump's team is preparing executive orders he could issue on his first day in the White House to target Tehran, including strengthening sanctions by adding new sanctions on Iranian oil exports, according to people familiar with the matter.
The Financial Times quoted Bob McNay, director of consultancy Rapidan Energy and a former energy adviser to the George W. Bush administration, as saying: “If they fully implement this measure, they might be able to reduce Iranian oil exports to a few hundred thousand. barrels per day. ” He added: “It is Iran's main source of income, and its economy is already more fragile than it was before. Which puts him in a much worse situation than it was even in the first term… and their situation will be very bad.”
Move quickly
Trump's advisers have called for rapid action on Tehran, and a person familiar with the plan said Trump would show “that the new administration will take implementing sanctions against Iran very seriously.” Trump's new national security adviser, Mike Waltz, helped pass legislation while a member of the House of Representatives imposing secondary sanctions on China's purchase of Iranian oil, but the proposed law was not passed by the Senate.
The “maximum pressure” campaign aims to deprive Iran of the revenue needed to build its military power or fund its proxies in the region, but the ultimate goal is to push it to negotiate a new nuclear deal and change its regional policy, according to people familiar with Trump's plans.
Iran supports armed groups in the region that have fired on Israel over the past year. Iran and Israel have also exchanged direct missile attacks. The national security expert familiar with the plan said: “We hope this will get them to agree to negotiate in good faith, which will stabilize relations and maybe normalize them one day, but I think Trump's conditions for this will be more difficult than what the Iranians are preparing for.
“Ultimate Wisdom”
Members of Trump's national security team include high-profile figures including his nominee for secretary of state, Marco Rubio, and national security adviser Mike Waltz, both of whom have advocated a tough on Iran.
“Just four years ago, their currency was collapsing and they were really in a weak position,” Waltz said at an Atlantic Council event in October. “We need to get back to that position.”
This week, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi urged the Trump team not to attempt the “maximum pressure” policy again. He said on the “X” platform: “Attempting maximum pressure for the second time will only lead to maximum defeat for the second time. » He added, addressing the Iranians: “The best idea is to show maximum wisdom… for the benefit of all. »
Iran's new government, led by President Massoud Pezeshkian, has said it wants to renew dialogue with the West over the nuclear program crisis, with the aim of securing sanctions relief and boosting the country's economy . After meeting Thursday in Tehran with the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, Araqchi posted on the “X” platform, saying that Tehran was ready to negotiate, “based on our interest national and our inalienable rights, but we are not prepared to negotiate under pressure and intimidation.
“The big question”
However, Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said: “The big question is whether Iranian leader Ali Khamenei would be willing to strike a nuclear and regional deal with the man who killed Qassem Soleimani.” ” He added: “It is difficult to imagine a nuclear or regional agreement that would be acceptable to both the Israeli prime minister and the Iranian leader. »
Trump and his former administration officials have faced increasing threats from Iran since Trump ordered the assassination of Iranian leader Qassem Soleimani in January 2020. Last week, the U.S. Department of Justice also accused the Iranian government of hiring a man to draw up assassination plans. alleged enemies of the regime, including Trump. Tehran has denied involvement in any plot to kill Trump.
Meeting between Musk and the ambassador
Furthermore, Iran “categorically” denied on Saturday that any meeting took place between American businessman Elon Musk and its ambassador to the United Nations, expressing its “surprise” that the media reported this news, according to what “IRNA” reports. The agency cited a spokesperson for “Iranian Foreign Affairs”: Ismail Baghaei.
The New York Times reported that Musk, close to US President-elect Donald Trump, met last Monday with Ambassador Amir Saeed Irani, seeking to “reduce tensions” between Tehran and Washington. The newspaper cited two Iranian officials, who declined to reveal their identities, as saying that “the meeting, which was secret, lasted a full hour, was positive and resulted in good news.” Baghaei stressed that Iran “categorically denies such a meeting and expresses surprise at the American media coverage,” according to IRNA. Neither Trump's team nor the Iranian mission to the United Nations immediately confirmed the meeting.
The Iranian press highlighted the New York Times article reporting a meeting between Tehran's ambassador to the United Nations and billionaire Elon Musk. The Iranian daily Farahakhtegan chose a caricature of Elon Musk on its front page. Baghaei stressed that Iran “categorically denies such a meeting and expresses surprise at the American media coverage,” according to IRNA.
The United States does not currently have diplomatic relations with Tehran, but a private meeting with Musk presented a solution. This allowed Iran to avoid meeting with a US official, according to the New York Times.
During Trump's first term, he withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal reached under President Barack Obama, reimposed harsh economic sanctions that largely ban U.S. companies from doing business in Iran, and it was also he who ordered the airstrike that killed…Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani in 2020.
Separately, the Associated Press said an Iranian official confirmed he met with Musk as part of a possible step to ease tensions with Trump, adding that he was informed the discussion focused on a variety of topics, including Iran's nuclear program, its support. for anti-Israel groups across the Middle East and the prospects for… Improving relations with the United States.
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