Announcing diplomatic ties with Taiwan, also known as the Republic of China, could allow the United States to set in motion a series of events that could spell the end of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), says prominent Wang Dan Chinese dissident and leader of the Tiananmen Square student movement in 1989, now an American citizen.
“At present, only the United States has the power to defeat the CCP,” said Wang, who holds a doctorate in history from Harvard University and is a professor of history at National University. from Chengchi, Taiwan. Mr Wang was speaking at a forum on democracy movements in Sydney on November 12.
“The way to do this is very simple: just announce the establishment of diplomatic relations between Taiwan and the United States. »
Mr. Wang believes that the CCP would lose its legitimacy more easily than with any other form of action.
“The United States could actually say, 'I recognize two Chinas' – I recognize the People's Republic of China, but I will also establish diplomatic relations with the Republic of China, just as with East Germany and West Germany,” he said.
Wang believes that if the United States did announce the reestablishment of diplomatic ties with Taiwan, the CCP would be forced to consider how to respond, knowing that any response involving military action would only invite trouble in Beijing.
“When this happens, China will definitely have to start talks, because the United States will not use military force [de manière proactive] – the United States will always be ready to maintain friendly relations with China. China will likely take action, resulting in the final blow,” he added.
Beijing considers Taiwan a renegade province, even though the CCP has never ruled the self-governing island. The United States currently has no official diplomatic relations with Taiwan. They decided to officially recognize the CCP over the Republic of China in 1979, hoping that closer ties would promote mainland China's openness and liberalism. But this hope did not materialize.
Currently, U.S. support for Taiwan is manifested in the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, which authorizes the United States to provide Taiwan with military equipment necessary for its self-defense and to resist any form of coercion “that would undermine jeopardize the security or the social or economic system of the Taiwanese population.
“This may be a huge change that no one would have ever anticipated,” Wang said. “Don't think that diplomatic relations between Taiwan and the United States are impossible, especially now that we have an American president [Trump] who can do anything – a totally unpredictable president. »
Mr. Wang was one of the main leaders of the student movement during the Tiananmen Square protest. He was later sentenced to prison for his role in this mobilization and went into exile in the United States in 1998.
The CCP may not win the war
Even if a war breaks out across the Taiwan Strait, the CCP will not necessarily emerge victorious, Wang said.
“Even from a military point of view, I don't think the communist army has a good chance of winning,” he continued, noting that Taiwan is not that easy to invade. “The island has a long coastline, and in terms of intelligence cooperation, Taiwan's relations with Japan and the United States remain very close. »
According to CIA Director William Burns, CCP leader Xi Jinping has ordered the Chinese military to be ready by 2027 to successfully invade Taiwan.
Wang's analysis is shared by Lonnie Henley, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, who has more than 40 years of experience as an intelligence officer and East Asia expert. East. According to him, Beijing could fail to take over Taiwan for several reasons and thus lose power.
“In the aftermath of a failure to conquer Taiwan, the CCP leaders would rush to formulate the proclamation of strategic victory despite the military result, in a desperate effort to save their skin,” wrote Mr. Henley. “It is not at all certain that they will succeed. »
The fall of PCC will happen overnight
Mr. Wang also predicted that the fall of the CCP would happen overnight, referring to the demise of totalitarian regimes like the Soviet Union.
“One of the main characteristics of totalitarian states is that before a change happens, no one can predict it, because they control all the information,” he said.
“However, when change begins, it is always sudden and dramatic. The coming changes in China will certainly not be gradual. They will be abrupt. A major event can occur suddenly, and within a week, China could face upheaval. »
He cited the example of the “fall of the Gang of Four” in 1976, an event in which a group of political operators from the CCP's old guard, led by Jiang Qing – the wife of the CCP founder, Mao Zedong – was dismantled. This group had wreaked havoc for years, notably during the cultural revolution (1966-1976).
“In the space of a month, China had experienced real upheaval. […] Less than a month after Mao Zedong's death, his wife was arrested,” he added. “Such things have already happened in China. Since they happened once, there is no reason to believe that they cannot happen again. »
“If we look at the world, the Soviet Union and Taiwan changed overnight, so I think the probability of China experiencing a sudden change is more than 75%, and probably around 80%. »
Frank Fang contributed to this article.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The Epoch Times.
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