U.S. import prices rose unexpectedly in October, driven by rising prices for fuel and other goods, the latest indication of lack of progress in reducing inflation over the last few months.
Import prices rebounded 0.3% last month after an unrevised 0.4% decline in September, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast that import prices, which exclude customs duties, would fall 0.1 percent. In the 12 months to October, import prices increased by 0.8% after falling by 0.1% in September.
Prices of imported fuels increased by 1.5% after two consecutive monthly declines. Food prices fell by 1.6% for the third consecutive month. Excluding fuels and foodstuffs, import prices increased by 0.4% after an increase of 0.3% in September. So-called core import prices rose 2.2% year-on-year in October.
Last week, government data showed that progress in bringing inflation back to its 2% target had virtually stalled. Consumer prices rose 0.2% for a fourth consecutive month in October, while producer prices rose 0.2%.
This, coupled with tariffs on imported goods expected to be unveiled by President-elect Donald Trump’s new administration, has led economists to believe the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates four times in 2025, as politicians predicted in September.
Although the U.S. central bank is widely expected to make a third rate cut in December, some economists say it will be a close call. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday that “the economy is not sending any signals that we should be in a hurry to lower rates.”
The Fed began its monetary policy easing cycle with an unusually large half-percentage-point rate cut in September, its first reduction in borrowing costs since 2020. It raised rates by 525 points base in 2022 and 2023 to control inflation.
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