London (awp/afp) – Oil prices hesitate on Thursday, after the publication of several reports showing continued concerns about the Chinese slowdown but also a rise in India as a new relay for oil demand. ‘black gold.
Around 10:00 GMT (11:00 CET), the price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in January, lost 0.03% to $72.26.
Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for delivery in December, fell 0.09% to $68.60.
The Brent price stabilized around $72, with a “mixed dynamic, oscillating between decline and cautious optimism,” explains Ole Hvalbye, analyst at SEB.
Since Donald Trump’s victory in the American presidential election, black gold has suffered from the appreciation of the dollar. Since the price of oil is expressed in dollars, a stronger greenback makes it relatively more expensive for foreign buyers and decreases demand.
China’s slowdown, weighed down by sluggish consumption and a severe real estate crisis, is also weighing down demand for black gold, which is strongly correlated with the economic health of the Asian giant, the world’s leading oil importer.
China’s recovery plan, with its multiple announcements since last September, “did not meet investors’ expectations”, specifies John Plassard, analyst at Mirabaud.
The report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), published on Thursday, nevertheless revised its demand forecasts very slightly upwards for the current year. In October, the agency forecast an increase of 900,000 barrels compared to 2023, compared to 920,000 now. Demand for 2025 remains unchanged.
In the report from the American Energy Information Agency (EIA) published the day before, “India emerges as the main engine of growth in oil demand in 2024 and 2025”, notes John Evans, analyst at PVM.
The barrel of Brent “should remain above 70 dollars in the short term”, but the more distant outlook depends above all on the next production decisions of OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies) which will take place in at the beginning of December during their biannual meeting, says Ole Hvalbye.
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