Oil prices recovered on Wednesday, encouraged by an American price index which does not call into question the hypothesis of a continuation of the ongoing monetary easing, itself a factor supporting demand for black gold. . A barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in January increased by 0.54%, to close at $72.28. A barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) due in December rose 0.45% to $68.43.
For John Kilduff of Again Capital, the strengthening of crude prices is linked to the publication of the American consumer price index CPI. It stood at 2.6% in October over one year, in line with economists' projections, i.e. above the 2.4% in September. For Bill Adams of Comerica Bank, despite the acceleration, “these data point to a further rate cut by the Fed (American central bank) in December”. This perspective “is positive” for oil prices because it indicates “a potential increase in oil demand in the coming months”according to John Kilduff.
Donald Trump's choices closely scrutinized
The analyst also discussed the market's reaction to Donald Trump's foreign policy choices. The president-elect thus announced on Tuesday the appointment to the post of national security advisor of the Republican elected to the House of Representatives Mike Waltz, who has regularly made a very firm speech towards Iran. In addition, Florida Senator Marco Rubio was appointed secretary of state on Wednesday. This former presidential candidate recently called on Joe Biden to “impose maximum pressure on Iran”. Iran produced 3.41 million barrels per day in September, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
These elements limited the scope of the monthly report from the American Energy Information Agency (EIA). The EIA revised downward the average price of a barrel of Brent for 2025 and slightly raised the average global production level for next year, while keeping the consumption estimate unchanged, adjustments which were likely to undermine prices . But for John Kilduff, these changes were only marginal. “The trajectory of production will not change drastically in the short term”warns the analyst. The EIA still sees U.S. production rising to 13.5 million barrels per day in 2025, a level never seen in a full year.
