Or et Bitcoin. In a particularly detailed new essay, Arthur Hayes delivers his vision of the current American economy and projects himself into the next Trump mandate by trying to determine its broad outlines and the consequences on his favorite asset: Bitcoin. He begins his presentation by repeating a phrase attributed to the former president of China Deng Xiaoping who was asked whether he preferred capitalism, socialism or communism and who replied: “It doesn’t matter if a cat is black or white as long as it catches mice”.
For the former CEO of BitMEX, the new President in charge of the country will do the same thing as the Chinese leader by mixing different forms of economic policies in a very syncretism. of trumps which will have only one goal: to revive the economy at all costs. To achieve this, its tools are already known and they will tirelessly lead to a weakening of the greenback which will benefit by side effect two assets that it likes: gold, but especially Bitcoin.
- Arthur Hayes claimed that Trump's economic policies could lead to a devaluation of the dollar, thus favoring gold and Bitcoin.
- He predicted that this situation could push Bitcoin to extraordinary heights, but at the risk of catastrophic inflation.
The Trump administration will promote the US economy with large amounts of credit and money printing
We are not going to repeat here all the explanations from the economic history enthusiast that is Arthur Hayes and which dates back to the 19th century to illustrate the negligence of several decades of American leaders. For him, the country has lost its way by allowing the richest living on both Atlantic and Pacific coasts to remain so to the detriment of the poorest living in the heart of a America completely neglected rural area.
Under the pretext of carrying out trickle-down policies or stimulating growth through economic recoverysuccessive governments printed more and more money and therefore contributed to increasing inflation. The peak of this phenomenon was observed during the COVID crisis where many countries saw their money supply explode upwards to supposedly save their economy with so-called Quantitative Easing (QE) whatArthur Hayes details in a precise and acerbic manner.
This policy could devalue the dollar and therefore push gold and Bitcoin to new heights
For the brand new manager of family office Maelstrom, this catastrophic policy will continue and even increase under the Trump mandate, who has already promised to inject significant funds into sectors of national industry such as automobiles, shipbuilding or semiconductors. Fueled by massive credits and loans, these stimulus could lead “an intentional devaluation of the dollar” which in turn would pull down traditional savings and Treasury bonds.
Fatally, the safe haven assets would then fully play their role and we could see an influx of capital heading towards gold and Bitcoin all over the world:
“As the supply of bitcoins only decreases, the FIAT currencies of the Americans, but also of the Chinese, Japanese and Western Europeans will seek refuge. This is how bitcoin will reach 1 million dollars (…). Be long, and stay long. »
Arthur Hayes, director of the Maelstrom family office – Source: cryptohayes.substack.com
The scenario described in his presentation is certainly good news for Bitcoin fans, but it would result in a general impoverishment of the population and the return of very significant inflation. Bitcoin at 1 million dollars, the idea is pleasant, but if the baguette costs 10 or 20 dollars, there will not be many people to rejoice at the news.
