The new biannual barometer of the new real estate market from Empruntis, in collaboration with Find-un-logement-neuf.com has just been released. And the news is good! This new barometer, which studies the period from March – October 2024, allows us to draw several conclusions on the state of health of the French real estate market as well as on the purchasing power of the French. Indeed, new real estate has experienced a significant downward trend since the start of 2024. With an average price of €361,710 for a three-room apartment (reference value for the barometer). An average price which falls in 7 of the 10 largest French cities, and all of these cities studied have seen a drop in rates since March 2024 ! Here is the detail ????
Borrowing rates noted on 07/11/2024
A T3 in a big city? It’s finally cheaper!
Currently, the French new property market is experiencing a period of falling prices. A reassuring situation for future buyers, who see prices falling in the majority of metropolises.
| Ville | Prix | Price evolution |
|---|---|---|
| Paris | 643 000 € | – 196 000 € |
| Lyon | 403 600 € | + 4 600 € |
| Nice | 435 300 € | + 33 400 € |
| 301 600 € | – 55 200 € | |
| 316 500 € | – 13 200 € | |
| 295 600 € | – 26 500 € | |
| 306 200 € | – 11 200 € | |
| 313 300 € | – 17 400 € | |
| Lille | 300 300 € | – 44 100 € |
| 301 100 € | + 7 600 € |
Source: HALF-ANNUAL BAROMETER OF THE NEW REAL ESTATE MARKET IN 10 CITIES IN FRANCE – November 2024, Empruntis / Find-un-logement-neuf.com
This table allows you to solidify the thesis of the common dynamics of a market which is experiencing a recovery. But certain points need to be qualified, particularly regarding the Parisian dynamic. Indeed, the Parisian market is a niche market, which should be analyzed with caution. Due to the very low number of new properties available for sale, the figures are very elastic due to lack of volume.
As for the justifications for this common dynamic, Céline Coletto, spokesperson for Find-un-Logement-neuf.com believes that “The price correction which has now been taking place for almost a year in real estate development is is even observed in most of the 10 largest cities in France. Faced with an increasingly reduced number of Pinel investors and in fact, a market which naturally turns more towards first-time buyers, promoters are in the process of putting together an offer more in line with the new borrowing capacity of households and therefore more affordable”.
Falling rates for everyone!
While during the last barometer in March 2024, 7 out of 10 cities experienced a drop in rates, the barometer in November 2024 reports, a drop in borrowing rates for all of the 10 large cities studied.
On average, over 20 years the borrowing rates of large French cities have seen a drop of 45 basis points on average since March 2024. A range of rates which is also narrowing, with average borrowing rates ranging from 3.45 % for Bordeaux and up to 3.55% for Paris. The other 8 cities have an average mortgage rate of 3.50%. Nassima Khiari, head of banking relations at Groupe Empruntis, explains:
“The recent decision of the European Central Bank to once again lower its key rates opens up encouraging prospects for the real estate market.
This second consecutive decline, after that of September, suggests a continued reduction in interest rates, creating a particularly favorable context for potential buyers but also for developers, allowing them to slow down the decline in their prices.”
Gain in purchasing power throughout the country
Prices are falling in 7 of the large cities studied, rates are falling in each of these large cities… This is excellent news for household purchasing power! If in March 2024, the first encouraging signals began to be felt, we can now affirm that the market is part of a sustainable dynamic of gaining purchasing power!
Average monthly credit payments over 20 years are set between €1,714 for Bordeaux and €3,746 for Paris. From these figures we can estimate that the average monthly payment in large metropolises fell by an average of 9.4%, after an initial fall of 3% last March.
| Ville | Monthly payments | Evolution of the monthly payment |
|---|---|---|
| Paris | 3 746 € | – 26 % |
| Lyon | 2 341 € | – 2,7 % |
| Nice | 2 525 € | + 3,70 % |
| Bordeaux | 1 714 € | – 19 % |
| Nantes | 1 776 € | – 7,3 % |
| Strasbourg | 1 714 € | – 11,4 % |
| Montpellier | 1 776 € | – 7,3 % |
| Marseille | 1 817 € | – 9,3 % |
| Lille | 1 742 € | – 16,1 % |
| Toulouse | 1 746 € | – 1 % |
Source: HALF-ANNUAL BAROMETER OF THE NEW REAL ESTATE MARKET IN 10 CITIES IN FRANCE – November 2024, Empruntis / Find-un-logement-neuf.com
And does the future look just as bright?
Based on the current situation and the figures from our study, it seems that the new real estate market is gradually becoming more and more advantageous. Particularly when we speculate with government measures and/or ideas to help revive the market. Empruntis Group banking relations manager, Nassima Khiari, looks ahead with optimism:
“Furthermore, the government is expected to announce new measures to support the new real estate sector. Among the expected measures, the expansion of the Zero Rate Loan to the entire territory and its extension to individual houses.”
“Finally, several French cities (e.g. Bordeaux) present situations where buying new property can turn out to be less expensive than buying old property, once all the associated costs are taken into account. This situation is explained in particular by the drop in the prices of properties remaining unsold but also by the new energy standards and the obligations linked to the DPE which make certain old housing more expensive taking into account the renovation work.”
Same story for Céline Coletto, spokesperson for Find-un-logement-neuf.com:
« In our opinion, there is a window of opportunity that cannot be missed. With the disappearance of Pinel on December 31, promoters continue to free up their stock by multiplying commercial offers and discounts. While at the same time, a new threshold is emerging to be reached from 2025 in the Environmental Regulations, RE2020, we can imagine that once this stock is purged, commercial operations end and prices start to rise again in a constrained manner. in order to absorb this imposed technological leap.”
The market is therefore recovering, with upcoming actions that will help it stabilize. Good news for buyers!
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