The new American President Donald Trump is sowing doubt about the future of relations between Washington and Taipei. Taiwan may have to pay more for crucial U.S. support in the face of growing threats from China. Between hopes and fears, the island is preparing for a period of uncertainty…
The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States raises many questions about the future of relations between Washington and Taipei. If Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te sent his “sincere congratulations” to the new tenant of the White House, many analysts believe that the island could now pay much more, literally and figuratively, for the crucial support of its American ally in the face of the growing threat from China.
A “very uncertain” American policy towards Taiwan
Despite the strong ties that historically unite the United States and Taiwan, the coming to power of Donald Trump casts doubt on the solidity of this strategic partnership. As Amanda Hsiao of the International Crisis Group points out, the new administration’s policy towards the island is “very uncertain”. On the one hand, Washington could condition the maintenance of its aid on an increased financial contribution from Taipei. On the other hand, Trump could seek to significantly strengthen bilateral relations, even if it means provoking the ire of Beijing.
This ambivalence comes against a backdrop of growing Chinese military pressure on Taiwan. Under the leadership of Xi Jinping, who considers “unification” as “inevitable”, China has intensified its shows of force around the island, deploying fighter planes and warships. According to sources close to American intelligence, the Chinese leader has even ordered his army to prepare for a possible invasion by 2027.
Washington, an indispensable ally but at what price?
Faced with this threat, support from Washington appears more crucial than ever for Taiwan. The island’s main arms supplier, the United States has sold billions of dollars worth of military equipment to Taipei in recent decades. Aid which could, however, have a much higher cost in the future. During his campaign, Donald Trump suggested that Taiwan “should pay” more for its defense, sowing confusion about his intentions.
Despite these uncertainties, the Taiwanese authorities say they are determined to strengthen their military capabilities. The defense budget for 2024 was thus increased to a record level of $19 billion, and is expected to increase further the following year. A firm desire for autonomy that Taipei intends to make known to the new American president.
Taiwan, “bargaining currency” in a context of tensions?
Beyond the military aspect, it is also Taiwan’s place on the geopolitical scene that seems threatened. If Democrats and Republicans have so far displayed a bipartisan consensus in favor of the island, Trump’s recent statements raise fears of a more selective commitment from Washington in the event of a Chinese attack. An uncertainty accentuated by the billionaire’s grievances against Taiwan, accused of having “stolen” its semiconductor industry from the United States.
For Liu Jia-wei, of the National Taipei University, there is a great risk of seeing Taiwan “discussed as a bargaining chip” according to American interests in the event of a trade war with China. An observation shared by Rorry Daniels, of the Asia Society Policy Institute, for whom the disdain displayed by Trump towards multilateralism could further marginalize the island, only recognized by a handful of States, on the international scene.
Between hopes and concerns, Taipei facing the challenge of the Trump era
If the Taiwanese presidency was keen to express its confidence in the solidity of the partnership with the United States, the “cornerstone” of regional stability, the election of Donald Trump opens a period of uncertainty for the island. Between the threat of an ever more assertive China and potentially more conditional and transactional support from Washington, Taipei will have to navigate carefully to defend its security and sovereignty.
A challenge for Taiwanese diplomacy which, despite limited resources, strives to cultivate its friendships and make its voice heard on the international scene. Faced with the unpredictability of the Trump administration, Taiwan will have to rely more than ever on its resilience and determination to preserve its hard-won democratic gains and chart its own destiny. A major challenge at a time when geopolitical balances seem more threatened than ever in the Asia-Pacific.
