The future cap on pollution emitted by the oil and gas sectors could have been more ambitious or its timetable urgently brought forward. The climate crisis which is simultaneously flooding and drying the planet has exhausted all reserves of patience for many. The upcoming imposition of such a regulation by Justin Trudeau’s government on Canada’s most polluting industries nevertheless represents an important milestone in its environmental arsenal, which even some environmentalists have welcomed. Because progress is also made of sometimes imperfect steps and of the hope, however slight, that they will not be erased too quickly.
Thus, from 2030, oil and gas companies will be imposed a cap on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions forcing the reduction of their pollution by 27% below their measured level from 2026, or the equivalent of a reduction of 35% below that of their 2019 emissions.
The Liberal government and the Minister of the Environment, Steven Guilbeault, had promised last year a reduction in GHGs of 35% to 38% compared to 2019. The draft regulation unveiled this week therefore retained the lower range .
As previously stated, the federal measure will only restrict the GHG emissions of the largest oil and gas producers (365,000 barrels or more per year), and not their production. The latter will nevertheless grow by 16% between 2019 and 2030-2032, a drop of barely one percentage point compared to the projected scenario without an emissions cap, according to the Ministry of the Environment.
Too timid a target, some will say. The most realistic target, will retort the government, whose hands are tied by respect for the Constitution, which gives the provinces exclusive management of their natural resources and their exploitation. If the federal government had not stuck to what is achievable, without limiting their production in a roundabout way, it would have only dealt a blow to oil.
The proof, the Premier of Alberta, Danielle Smith – whose United Conservative Party has just adopted a resolution abandoning any target of zero GHG emissions and describes carbon dioxide as an “essential nutrient for life” -, has brandished a legal challenge in the minutes following Minister Guilbeault’s announcement.
The fate of this cap finally imposed on the most polluting industries (31% of Canada’s GHG emissions) is therefore only uncertain, and not a lost cause.
The promised settlement, however, will probably only arrive too late. Even though it has been promised since the 2021 election, it is a proposal that has just been presented, which will then be subject to consultations, before being finalized next spring. Which is precisely the most likely season for a federal election campaign.
Although Mr. Guilbeault says he is aware of it and has promised to work to promulgate the regulation before the start of an electoral campaign, prior implementation of the pollution ceiling would have forced the industry to already adapt to it. Which would have complicated its repeal by a future conservative government.
Without forcing the hand of the most polluting sectors, Canada will not achieve its GHG reduction targets, which have only fallen by 8% compared to 2005 levels, therefore still far from the federal objective of reduction of 40% to 45% in just over five years. Emissions from the industry remain below their 2019 levels, but they have been steadily increasing since the pandemic.
By placing the fate of the late implementation of his ceiling on the shoulders of the Bloc and NDP opposition parties, and on their support of the minority Liberal government, Mr. Guilbeault is showing disgraceful deceit. If he wants to present himself next week at COP29 and boast of being the minister of the only country to have joined the gesture to the promise made during the UN climate conference last year, that is to make a “transition » towards an escape from dependence on fossil fuels, it is up to him to finish the job.
Steven Guilbeault, the environmental activist, has never denied his regrets that climate action remains limited to the constraints of politics. Having become a minister, however, he will have understood that he must resign himself to the limits they dictate. While arming oneself with the unshakeable optimism of seeing the progress that has been made, despite everything, resist electoral hazards.
Donald Trump’s victory in the American presidency, however, sounds the death knell for all environmental ambition, not only in the United States, but in Canada as well, by exonerating a conservative government that would choose inaction. The hope of progress, even if unfinished, has just been shattered.
