With the assurance of obtaining more than 270 electoral votes, Donald Trump is certain to be elected President of the United States again. A return to the White House that could lead to geopolitical upheaval on a global scale.
Towards a major international crisis or a return to more lasting peace in certain regions of the world? Donald Trump will once again take his place in the Oval Office of the White House. According to the first results, the Republican candidate is guaranteed to have the 270 voters necessary for his election. A victory which will be synonymous with a turnaround in the country’s international policy.
If “Make America Great Again” is Donald Trump’s flagship slogan, “America First” is also one of the statements at the heart of the campaign. of the Republican who shows his desire to embrace an isolationist policy. A turnaround confirmed to CNEWS by political scientist Philippe Moreau Chevrolet.
The near certainty of abandoning Ukraine
“With a withdrawal of the United States from the international scene and the adoption of an isolationist policy, we will witness an abandonment of Ukraine,” estimated the expert. Indeed, for Philippe Moreau Chevrolet, “Russia is the winning actor apart from Donald Trump in this election”.
During the race for the White House, Donald Trump took the opposite view of the Democrats and their candidate, Kamala Harris, by “flattering Vladimir Putin, his Russian ally”.
Thus, this rapprochement with Russia should seal the future of American aid to Ukraine. Aware of this high probability, Ukrainian head of state Volodymyr Zelensky quickly congratulated Donald Trump on his victory, emphasizing in his message on Ukraine with the United States.”
Uncertainty for Israel
However, if the Donald Trump Administration will certainly turn its back on Ukraine in war against Russia, it will not be the same with Israel whose position is more uncertain.
Indeed, the Republican candidate showed fervent support for the Jewish state, unlike the Kamala Harris clan which “was tempted by support for Gaza,” recalled Philippe Moreau Chevrolet.
If Donald Trump is concretely in favor of continuing aid to Israel, he could make a completely different choice, which could displease Benjamin Netanyahu. The president-elect of the United States could turn to negotiations with… Vladimir Putin.
“It is possible that Israel is the subject of an agreement between Russia and the United States,” indicated Philippe Moreau Chevrolet, adding, “we know that Russia supports Iran a lot secretly and war against Israel. “It’s possible that the deal will be Ukraine versus Israel, which would allow Donald Trump to say he has achieved peace.”
Europe’s difficult position
Europe will also find itself in a delicate position on the international scene with the election of Donald Trump, said the expert. “Everything will depend on Trump’s position against Putin. Is he going to want to be a number 2 on the international scene who will support him or is he going to want to exist in front of him and in that case we will have a totally different configuration,” he said. he detailed.
In the first case, “we let Russia act and Europe, or even part of the world, comes under Russian domination as long as the United States remains on an isolationist line.”
In the second, “after a period of intense flirting and rapprochement, we are heading towards a confrontation or a cold war in which Europe would once again be stuck, isolated between the two blocs and China”.
“All the factors come together for a serious crisis on the international level and for Europe to find itself between two blocs which will be either allies or enemies,” lamented Philippe Moreau Chevrolet.
A withdrawal from global environmental agreements
Geopolitics is also about common work in favor of the environment of a common planet and once again, Donald Trump risks going against the grain of the Joe Biden Administration.
During his first term, the Republican decided to exit the Paris climate agreements made in 2015. Agreements to which Joe Biden returned after his ascension to the White House but which Donald Trump could leave again.
In his victory speech, the president-elect expressed his desire to “manage the oil”. For Philippe Moreau Chevrolet, it is certain that “there will be a huge setback by the American state in terms of environmental policies”, due in particular to the difficulty the candidate had in financing his campaign, which therefore made a lot of promises to big lobbies (oil, arms, tobacco, etc.).
