Who will win the US presidential election, Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris or former Republican head of state Donald Trump? Some 244 million Americans were called yesterday to decide on this question, of whom more than 80 million have already voted in advance, either by mail or in person.
In addition to choosing the successor to Joe Biden, they are also required to vote for members of Congress. In the United States, midterm elections take place every two years. On this occasion, the House of Representatives is renewed in its entirety, i.e. 435 seats, as well as a third of the Senate (which has 100 members, two per state).
Various local elections are also organized on the same day: municipal elections, for state legislative chambers, governors, and even judges. In some states, voters will also be able to vote on referendums at the local level.
In a message on social networks, the Democrat, who could become the first woman to lead the world’s leading power, called for “opening the next chapter of the greatest story ever told.” “We vote because we love our country and we believe in the promises of America,” she wrote.
For his part, the Republican published a video with images of migrants surging across the border or armed delinquents, in contrast with workers, miners, police officers or activists at his meetings. “We are asked to accept the situation as it is. And we wonder if America can make a comeback. We can,” he said. And added: “When we are knocked down, we do not stay there, we get up and we fight.”
The election is taking place at a time when American society is rarely so fractured. Among other indicators of this polarization, supporters of the right to abortion against defenders of the right to life, pro-guns versus anti-guns, feminists and tradwifes (housewives), climate skeptics and those who support the “Green New Deal”, a resolution calling for a drastic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
The election promises to be close, according to the latest polls between the two candidates, which still give them neck and neck, and we will perhaps have to wait several days before knowing who, the Republican or the Democrat, will become the 47th president of the United States.
The long vote count
Once the polls close on Tuesday, the counting of votes begins throughout the United States: a process which differs from one state to another and which could take days, particularly in the event of disputes and legal appeals. . How does the count take place? In a country as large as the United States, with six time zones, the closure of polling stations extends from 11 p.m. GMT Tuesday, in Indiana and Kentucky, to 6 a.m. GMT today for the westernmost territory , the Aleutian Islands in Alaska.
More than 80 million Americans have already voted early, by mail or at the polling station.
States cannot get ahead of counting these ballots, but most have authorized voting officials to prepare them, verifying that the conditions are met, to facilitate the count.
A handful, including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two key states, however, do not allow this preparation before voting day. In the majority of states, ballots first pass through an optical scanner, which gives an initial result, before being recounted by hand for confirmation.
The result is then certified by polling station officials, who are elected or appointed according to the laws, and transmitted to county and state authorities, as well as local political party officials. And in the event of a close vote, a scenario envisaged for the seven key states in these elections (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina), one or more recounts will be necessary. This can vary greatly. In 2020, Joe Biden’s victory against Donald Trump was announced by the media four days after the vote. That of Donald Trump on Hillary Clinton in 2016, however, was known the next day.
For his election in 2008 against John McCain and his re-election four years later against Mitt Romney, Barack Obama was able to celebrate his victories the same evening.
But in 2000, the name of the winner, George W. Bush, was not known until December 12, five weeks after the election, after a long recount process and multiple appeals in Florida, before the Supreme Court don’t decide.
In 2020, and then in the midterm elections in 2022, voting officials in several counties refused to certify the results, a necessary step that is usually a formality before their publication. A possibility which is likely to arise this year in certain key states, where the Republicans are also on a war footing to launch legal appeals, which could once again go all the way to the Supreme Court.
Procedures launched even before voting day by the two parties, to challenge the electoral rules, could also complicate the process.
Kamala Harris’ campaign warned Monday that the final results, particularly in Pennsylvania and Nevada, would not be known for “several days” and warned Donald Trump’s camp against any attempt to “sow doubt and chaos » on the integrity of the election. The legislation provides that all appeals must be judged before the 538 electors meet on December 17. The result of their vote must be certified to Congress on January 6, 2025. Amnay Idir
An indirect vote
The American presidential election is an election by indirect universal suffrage. Concretely, voters check the box on their ballot corresponding to the presidential candidate of their choice. But in fact, citizens designate the 538 electors who make up the electoral college and will vote in their name at the end of a long process. To be elected president, a candidate must obtain the votes of at least 270 of them. Each state is allocated a number of electors equivalent to the number of its representatives in Congress, which brings together the two parliamentary chambers, i.e. a total of 535 people: there are 100 senators, or two per state, and 435 representatives, whose number is distributed according to the population of the States. To this figure, we must add three major electors for the District of Columbia, that is to say the city of Washington which, as the federal capital, has a separate status and has neither senators nor representatives.
Each state has its system of appointing electors, who are generally selected in recognition of their service to the party or candidate. In forty-eight of the fifty states, as well as in the federal district, the candidate who comes first wins all the votes of the electors at stake on the principle of “winner-take-all”. In Maine and Nebraska, the system differs in that it uses proportional representation: one elector is chosen in each district based on the result of the popular vote, then two electors are chosen based on the overall result in the state. . R. I.
What if there is absolute equality between the two candidates?
What if Kamala Harris and Donald Trump each fail to reach the necessary majority of voters to win the White House? This hypothesis is theoretically possible. According to the Constitution, it would then be up to Congress to designate the 47th president of the United States. More precisely, in the newly elected House of Representatives, the Senate finds itself responsible for appointing the future Vice-President.
This rare scenario would occur if the two candidates arrive at an equal number of electors, 269 to 269. Several voting scenarios result in this perfect sharing of the electoral college, which has 538 members who must subsequently appoint the President.
For example, if the Democrat wins Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Republican wins Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and a left-leaning district in Nebraska. We must go back to the presidential election of 1800, which pitted Thomas Jefferson (Republican-Democratic Party) against John Adams (Federalist Party), to find equality in the number of electors.
Notably, this tie did not concern Adams, but the two Democratic-Republican candidates, Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr, who each obtained 73 votes. The election was therefore declared invalid and the House of Representatives had to decide between them, finally electing Jefferson after 36 rounds of voting. This complex situation led to the adoption in 1804 of the 12th Amendment to the United States Constitution, which supplements article 2 and details the procedure in the event of a lack of majority in the electoral college. Concretely, how would this vote take place in the House on January 6, 2025? “Every state, regardless of its population, has the right to vote,” says the Congressional Research Service. In other words, the election is not done by each representative, but by majority delegation in each state: small Idaho (Republican) has one vote with its two representatives, just like California (Democratic) despite its 52 elected officials. .
The American federation has 50 states, the new majority to be achieved would therefore be 26 votes. And the Republicans are favored to retain this majority they currently hold.
