Key information
- TotalEnergies forecasts a peak in global oil consumption at best in 2030.
- The company forecasts a high plateau and a “very slow” decline in oil demand after the peak.
- Whatever the scenarios, TotalEnergies expects an increase in gas demand at least until 2030.
The world's fourth-largest oil and gas company forecasts a peak in global oil consumption at best in 2030. This forecast appears in its annual report on the evolution of the global energy system, published before the COP29 climate conference. The next United Nations climate conference, to be held in Baku, Azerbaijan (November 11-22), aims to set a new financial aid target for developing countries to help them reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to fossil fuel-driven climate change.
Like the International Energy Agency (IEA) last month, TotalEnergies presents its vision of the future energy landscape. Its sixth annual report analyzes the prospects for development of the global energy system according to three possible decarbonization scenarios by 2050, an essential benchmark in the fight against climate change. The first scenario, based on current policies, and the second, intermediate, both predict a temperature increase of more than 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. Only the “revolutionary” scenario aligns with the Paris agreement, aiming for a temperature increase of less than 2 degrees by 2100.
The challenges of the energy transition
TotalEnergies does not expect a peak in oil demand before the end of the current decade in the first two scenarios. The reasons given are increasing energy demand in developing countries and persistent obstacles to the energy transition, including insufficient investment in power grids and slower than expected adoption of electric vehicles. Aurélien Hamelle, general director of strategy and sustainable development at TotalEnergies, highlighted that “today we have less than 20 percent of electric vehicles in vehicle sales in Europe”.
Oil demand projections
In its base case, TotalEnergies forecasts a peak in oil demand around 2035, followed by a high plateau and a “very slow” decline. Oil demand would still reach around 90 million barrels per day by 2050, slightly less than the current daily consumption of 104 million barrels forecast by OPEC for 2024. The intermediate scenario predicts a peak just after 2030, followed by a plateau and a more significant decline, with demand reaching around 65 million barrels per day in 2050. In the disruption scenario, the peak would occur shortly before 2030 and oil consumption would fall to 44 million barrels per day. barrels per day in 2050.
Gas demand projections
Whatever the scenarios, TotalEnergies expects an increase in gas demand at least until 2030, or even beyond 2040 according to the various projections. Gas is considered a key energy source to compensate for the intermittency of wind and solar power and to “decarbonize” electricity. A gas-fired power plant emits about half as much CO2 into the atmosphere as coal-fired power plants, which still accounted for 74 percent of global electricity production in 2022.
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