Hours, days or weeks? It is impossible to know precisely the exact moment of the announcement of the winner of the American presidential election, which takes place this Tuesday and whose counting will begin in certain states at midnight (French time). But there is a good “chance” that the suspense will last several days for some 244 million American voters. Here are the different scenarios.
Scenario 1: the winner is announced on Wednesday morning
This is the most classic scenario, but the least likely this year. The latest polls – placing the candidates neck and neck – were wrong and the gap between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is ultimately greater than we imagined. The main American press agency, Associated Press, which traditionally gives the name of the winner first, announced the result on the night of Tuesday to Wednesday, estimating that the gap between the winner and his rival is sufficient in view of the ballots remaining. strip. Results from eastern states falling a priori more quickly due to the time difference. Thus, in 2016, Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton was announced around 8:30 a.m. (French time), once most of the swing states won by the Republican candidate.
It must be said that the voting method in the United States is complex: Americans vote for a college of 538 electors, distributed among the 50 states, without the total votes at national level being decisive. According to the New York Timesthis year, Georgia, Wisconsin and North Carolina will quickly count the votes; Michigan faster than in the past; Pennsylvania will take longer than the American night and Arizona and Nevada will take days…
Scenario 2: the result is announced after several days
This is the most anticipated scenario. The state-by-state results take several days to come back and the name of the winner is only announced by the media during the week, or even at the end of the week. In 2020, we had to wait four days to find out that Joe Biden had won over Donald Trump, thanks to the decisive votes in Pennsylvania. It must be said that since this last election – and this will be the case again this year – many Americans have been voting by mail, delaying the final result. There were 100 million in 2020 – the year of Covid -, there are at least 80 million this year. The counting, which cannot be done before the other ballots, is longer because it includes several verification steps, such as ensuring that the voter has not also voted physically. However, according to the New York Timesthe procedure for recording these votes has “considerably improved” and delays should therefore be less significant.
Basically, the results should drag on due to the political context. Donald Trump has already announced that in the event of defeat in certain states where the election will be close, he would request a recount of the votes. Some states make this possible when the gap between the two candidates is particularly close. In North Carolina, for example, the electoral code allows the second-place candidate to request a recount if there is less than 0.5 point difference.
Scenario 3: the procedure gets bogged down and lasts several weeks
It is also possible that the announcement of the result will not last days, but weeks. In 2000, it took 36 days for the Supreme Court to declare George W. Bush the winner after weeks of legal battle and a vote recount in Florida. Legally, states must certify their results before December 12, time to observe any appeals and recounts requested by the candidates. Four years ago, Donald Trump filed 61 appeals to invalidate ballots or challenge procedural changes. He only won one.
From December 17, the electors will meet to officially vote for the president and her vice-president. But we will have to wait until the joint session of Congress on January 6, 2025, at the latest, where the electoral college votes will be counted, to confirm who will take their place in the White House. THE process could therefore take weeks.
What time difference with us?
In the coming days, there will be more talk than ever of time difference with the follow-up to the American elections. The most cited American time is that of Washington, where there is the White House, on the east coast six hours behind Paris. When it is 7 p.m. there on Tuesday, when the counting begins, it will therefore be 1 a.m. Wednesday at home.
The United States is a large country and therefore the federal state contains six different time zones : from East to West, there is therefore a seven hour difference for Chicago or Dallas ; eight hours to Denver or Cheyenne ; nine hours to Los Angeles or Las Vegas ; 10 hours for Alaska and 11 hours for Hawaii. So when it's 7 p.m. in Hawaii on Tuesday, it will be 6 a.m. on Wednesday here. Sometimes we hear about GMT time, this is the average time calculated at the Greenwich meridian in the United Kingdom, which is one hour less than here in winter.
