Since the start of the week, oil prices have plunged below $80, to their lowest level since February. At the origin: the announcements from oil-exporting countries on Sunday concerning their strategy to reduce black gold production which quickly caused the markets to react. North Sea Brent, the benchmark in Europe, lost another 1.25% at 5:20 p.m., reaching $77.17. WTI, the American equivalent, fell 1.11% to 73.20 dollars.
The OPEC+ countries (including Russia) have agreed, since the end of 2022, to reduce their production in order to maintain high oil prices. Without these reductions, prices would have even “ collapsed » while the United States, Brazil and even Guyana are flooding the market, explains Olivier Gantois, president of Ufip energies.
Thus, two million barrels per day (mbd) were withdrawn from the market, then 1.65 mbd for certain members, a reduction expected to last until the end of 2025. Additional reductions of 2.2 mbd were also applied last November, expected to last until September 2024. It is this very last reduction that OPEC+ has decided to review by gradually putting barrels back on the market from September.
Fuel prices are getting closer to 2 euros per liter
A drop in fuel prices…
With this drop in prices, the question is whether fuel prices will be impacted. “ Logically, we should see a few cents drop at the pump in the coming days. », replies Philippe Chalmin, professor of economic history at Paris-Dauphine University and specialist in raw materials and energy.
Indeed, in addition to criteria such as the exchange rate, the refining margin and taxes, fuel prices are mainly influenced by variations in the price of crude oil.
…which should not last
However, this trend is not likely to continue. Indeed, this change in strategy comes simply to respond to the increase in anticipated global demand. The IEA has forecast an increase in demand of 1.1 million mb/d in 2024. And this trend is expected to continue according to the IEA for 2025, with an estimated growth of 1.2 mb/d. This anticipation nevertheless differs from OPEC+, which for its part expects 2.2 mb/d this year.
“The new OPEC+ decision remains consistent with what they have been doing for 18 months, and will make it possible to maintain the price of a barrel in a tunnel between 75 and 85 dollars », points out Olivier Gantois.
Result: despite the return of barrels to the market from September, prices at the pump should remain at their already high levels for a while. Unless the anticipated demand is not there, with OPEC+ anticipating greater demand than the International Energy Agency (IEA). In which case, there would be a risk of overproduction and ultimately a drop in prices. However, OPEC+ does not intend to take any risks. The organization has clearly indicated that it could reverse its decision at any time, particularly in the event of a fall in the price of black gold.
