Walvis Bay is transforming. Known for its fishing port and its mineral loading platform, the quays of Namibia’s main port (the only deep water port) now see oil drilling ships passing by. Not far from there, in the industrial zone, services linked to the oil industry are located. If Walvis Bay is the scene of such an abundance, it is because 280 kilometers off its coast, the basement of the seabed of the Orange basin, near a chain of ancient volcanoes under -sailors, are full of black gold.
In 2022, the announcement by the French TotalEnergies of the discovery of an immense oil deposit, estimated at more than 3 billion barrels, kicked off multiple exploration missions carried out by the main Western oil companies . Since then, Namibia has become an exploratory hub. Discoveries follow one another. Offshore reserves are estimated at 11 billion barrels.
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“Namibia presents the most exciting hydrocarbon prospects of the moment”says Mike Cooper, oil sector expert at Trove, a specialist consultancy. The oil majors concentrate their resources there. TotalEnergies, for example, has dedicated half of its exploration budget to Namibia in 2023, and around a third in 2024. The French group must announce its final investment decision in 2025.
Future oil juggernaut
The exploitation of crude from 2030 gives hope to this vast country populated by only 2.5 million inhabitants of the possibility of unprecedented economic growth. The authorities in Windhoek suggest that oil production could double Namibia’s GDP by 2040. Currently estimated at more than 500,000 barrels per day, the extraction capacity would make the southern African country the fifth African producer behind Nigeria, Libya, Angola and Algeria.
The growth of Namibia, the second least densely populated nation on the planet, is already largely based on its extractive industry. Revenues from uranium, lithium and diamond mines currently represent around 15% of GDP and 60% of exports.
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A scenario “similar to that of Guyana is very likely”confided Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of TotalEnergies, in an interview with Bloomberg in April 2024, referring to the small South American country whose oil production, which began in 2019, has tripled its GDP in four years and has generated unexpected growth (62% in 2022, 38% in 2023).
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