What the death of Yahya Sinouar can change in the Israel-Hamas war

INTERNATIONAL – A huge blow for Hamas, the consequences of which remain unclear. Israel announced this Thursday, October 17 at the end of the day the death of the leader of the Islamist movement Yahya Sinouar, a little over a year after the deadly attacks against the Jewish state.

Yahya Sinouar was considered the mastermind of the unprecedented Hamas attack in southern Israel on October 7, 2023, which plunged the region into bloody conflict. His death is a personal matter » for many Israelis, and in particular for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who has set the eradication of Hamas as his war goal, notes Michael Horowitz, expert for the security consulting firm Le Beck.

But what can his death change in the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza? “Hamas has been considerably weakened. The death of Sinouar, along with that of Mohammed Deif (the head of the armed wing of Hamas whom Israel claimed to have killed in July, Editor’s note) is an accumulation of blows”welcome Michael Horowitz. More “ It’s not going to disappear just like that.”adds the researcher.

Towards a new agreement?

For the analysts interviewed, the main consequence of this death could be a resumption of negotiations for a ceasefire and the release of the hostages. Conducted for more than a year under the aegis of the United States, Qatar and Egypt, the negotiations – which only allowed a week of truce at the end of 2023 and the release of hostages against Palestinian prisoners – never again came to fruition and came up against the intransigence of the two belligerents.

“The elimination of Sinwar is an opportunity for the immediate release of the hostages and opens the way to profound change in Gaza: without Hamas and without the control of Iran”said Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz in a statement. For Elliot Abrams, researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), his death can “ change the situation » et « make an agreement easier ».

“Sinouar was seen as one of the main obstacles to an agreement, although he was not the only one. His death may be an opportunity to change the dynamic” if the Israeli government “ seize the opportunity » and Sinouar is “ replaced by someone who has different views”estimates Michael Horowitz for his part.

The end of the war is not for yet

All analysts say it: Sinouar’s death will increase pressure on the Israeli government to bring back the hostages. The collective of hostage families “ Bring them home now » greeted on the elimination of the Hamas leader in Gaza » and asked “that this major breakthrough be used to reach an immediate agreement aimed at guaranteeing the return of the hostages” in order to « transform this military feat into a diplomatic feat”.

Should we expect the end of the war? On this subject, the analysts interviewed are much more cautious. “It’s a credible hypothesis”judge David Khalfa, specialist in the region and author of Israel Palestine, year zero. « Netanyahu could declare Hamas defeated and calm his base and far-right allies by offering them this trophy. »

“But we should not underestimate the fanaticism of some of its allies, who dream of recolonizing the north of the Gaza Strip” and will perhaps want to push their advantage, he warns. Analysts also point to Israel’s lack of strategic goal other than “ total victory » and the Israeli government’s refusal of discussions with the Palestinian authority, much less the possibility of a Palestinian state.

Benjamin Netanyahu himself declared that “Evil has taken a severe blow, but the task before us is not yet finished,” calling on Hamas members to release the hostages. “It’s the beginning of the end” of the war in Gaza, he added. As for the Chief of Staff of the army, Israeli General Herzi Halevi, he also warned: the war “ won’t stop” before the capture of all the perpetrators of the October 7 attack and the return of “ all the hostages » detained in Gaza.

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