Hamas leader Yahya Sinouar, 61, was killed in a clash with the Israeli army in Tel al-Sultan, a neighborhood in the town of Rafah, in the far south of the Gaza Strip. The head of Israeli diplomacy, Israel Katz, officially announced it this Thursday, October 17, 2024. Enough to reshuffle the cards of the war in Gaza? We take stock in six questions.
Is the death of Yahya Sinouar a turning point?
Yes. Thirteen months after the massacres of October 7, 2023, three months after the death of their chief executioner Mohammed Deif, commander of the armed wing of Hamas, Israel managed to eliminate the mastermind of the deadliest attack suffered by the Hebrew state on its soil (1,200 victims). It is an undeniable success: with the release of the hostages, the death of Yahya Sinouar was one of Israel’s stated war aims. This offers an opportunity for Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to end the war in Gaza.
Is this the end of Hamas in Gaza?
No. The elimination of Sinouar is certainly a terrible blow to the Palestinian Islamist movement. But since the creation of Hamas in the 1980s, with the blessing of Israel which intended to embarrass the Fatah of nationalist Yasser Arafat, the Islamic Resistance Movement has survived four wars with the Jewish state and multiple assassinations of its leaders. political or military.
The death of the founder of Hamas, the old and charismatic Ahmed Yassine, pulverized by a strike in March 2004, already in Gaza, did not prevent the movement from taking control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, by expelling the Authority Palestinian movement by Mahmoud Abbas. Yahya Sinouar himself had also succeeded Ismaïl Haniyeh, killed on July 31 in Iran by an Israeli strike, at the head of all of Hamas. Like Haniyeh, Sinouar will be replaced.
Will this affect the war in Gaza?
The death of Sinouar changes nothing from a military point of view. Hamas’ combat capabilities in Gaza have been destroyed since this summer, according to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. The Islamist movement is no longer able to threaten Israel, having just carried out guerrilla operations against Israeli soldiers. The latter control the Gaza Strip and go wherever and whenever they want.
What will Israel do now?
That’s the whole point. A year ago, Benjamin Netanyahu promised his fellow citizens “the eradication of Hamas”. All the experts, starting with the general staff of the Israeli army, say that it is impossible. That we do not eradicate a political movement anchored in a territory of 2.3 million Palestinians, 70% of whom are descendants of 1948 refugees.
But, after the destruction of Hamas’s military capabilities in Gaza, in particular its missile launchers, the death of the mastermind of the October 7 killings, who has since become head of Hamas, is the trophy which can allow Benjamin Netanyahu to decree that he kept his promise.
And stop the war in Gaza?
The second war goal proclaimed by Netanyahu was the release of all hostages (97 out of 251 remain) and the recovery of the bodies of those who died (probably 34 out of 97). Again, his army says this is impossible without negotiating a ceasefire.
Pressure will therefore redouble on the Israeli government to relaunch discussions with Hamas, via Qatar, Egypt and the United States, and end a war which has killed at least 42,000 Palestinians in Gaza.
Also read: INTERVIEW. “In Gaza, an absolutely unique war through the violence imposed on civilians”
Barely had news of Sinouar’s probable death filtered through on Thursday afternoon when the Israeli Association of Hostage Families issued a statement urging Netanyahu to immediately resume discussions to save the still living captives.
What are the consequences for Lebanon?
Right now, none. Israel is determined to push its advantage against Lebanese Hezbollah, to push its fighters and their missile launchers as far as possible from its northern border, to allow the 60,000 Israelis evacuated over the past year to return home.
But the end of the war in Gaza could facilitate the end of the conflict in Lebanon. Hezbollah and its Iranian sponsor have several times announced that the shooting on Israel, launched “in solidarity with Hamas”, would stop if a ceasefire is concluded in Gaza.
