WARNING
In conclusion, at the bottom of this article, we will see what loophole remains for the rich and ultra-rich. YOUR FUTURE EAST FUNCTION OF THIS ANDCHAPPATOIRE. But first, we need to understand the why and we will start by roughly explaining the collapses (some have already started) !
Let’s start with climate change
Climate change is starting (finally !) to worry many people, even those who have long remained incredulous. However, this is only an epi-phenomenon. The phenomena associated with climate change are increasing: mega fires all over the world: Australia, California, Siberia, closer to home, the Landes. Increasingly frequent flooding and even devastation as in the valleys of the Alpes-Maritimes. Everyone can see a clear increase in extreme climatic phenomena, whether in France or around the world. As I write these lines, the hurricane season is in full swing in the North Atlantic. Once dumped in the Caribbean and Florida, the remains recross the Atlantic and bring devastating weather phenomena to Western Europe, notably France, Ireland, the United Kingdom and so on.
Damp heat
Furthermore, it has been shown that intense humid heat is difficult for humans to tolerate. However, certain areas of the planet are strongly exposed to this risk and could become uninhabitable. This is particularly the case for the humid equatorial zones of South America and Africa: the Amazon and Congo basins. Added to these regions (depending on what extent ?), the equatorial parts of Asia and Oceania and Southeast Asia subject to hot and humid climates. All these regions risk quickly becoming uninhabitable, causing high mortality on the one hand and significant migrations on the other. Since many of them are among the most populated, the effects will most likely be devastating.
Let’s dare to compare it with apocalyptic climate change of the past
This apocalyptic event is nothing less than the first extinction of species around 250 million years ago. A program that I saw a few years ago (probably on Arte) analyzed the causes of this extinction. (Unfortunately, I was unable to find this program and I am appealing in case anyone has noted its references). In this broadcast, there were mainly 2 natural causes to the exclusion of extra-planetary causes (meteorites):
- A first warming of 5° for 40,000 years linked to super-volcanoes: the Siberian traps.
- A second warming like the first would have acidified the oceans and released methane hydrates from the ocean depths. There too a new warming of 5 additional degrees over 40,000 more years.
- In total, it was 10° over 80,000 years which would have caused the first extinction of species: 95% of marine species and 75 to 80% of terrestrial species.
If we compare with current warming (consider 1.5° over 170 years), we are going to at least 70 times faster ! But that’s not all for two reasons:
- First of all, this speed estimate is based on a linear extrapolation. But it seems that we must count on acceleration and not linearity.
- Then, other estimates on the internet indicate a duration longer than 80,000 years inducing a current estimate of a factor perhaps 250 times faster than then.
Simply by taking into account global warming alone, we can question the sustainability of the human species. I am talking here about the human species and I am not wondering about the future of planet Earth. At least, as long as the sun remains in the yellow dwarf stage and does not begin to shift to the red giant stage. Among the 35 vital indicators of our planet, 25 now show unprecedented levels of deterioration
But, as was quickly mentioned in the header, the Meadows report models many more interactions. Some of these interactions are addressed by the astrophysicist Aurélien Barrau in numerous videos on the internet. One of these videos lists various points of no return. One of its stands clearly shows that life on Earth is dying. Let us repeat his words: “ The crisis is fundamentally systemic and multi-factorial »,
last limits podcast
One of the most interesting resources (but is it really interesting? ?) on the internet is the podcast in 16 episodes of last limits. Many of the topics in the report are covered by various specialists. Each episode is discussed and presents possible solutions. Personally, I don’t believe in these avenues at all. On the one hand, there would need to be a global agreement from almost all the countries on the globe (you believe it, you ?), on the other hand, it is probable that many limits have already been exceeded and the avenues mentioned would arrive far too late even if they were followed today. One of the models sought by the report specifies that the world would have had to comply drastically with various prescriptions from 1980 to hope to follow a path that would not lead to collapse. We should instead say “ collapses »: insect collapse, bird collapse, wildlife collapse, climate collapse, resource collapse. The multi-factorial systemic aspect of the crisis becomes obvious to analyze it !
Resources
One of the aspects mentioned in the podcast concerns resources. Already in 2011, during the fight against shale gas in Ardèche, I mentioned the context in which shale gas was located. I will not return to this article but I would like to provide clarification regarding 4 points:
1. Peak oil
Around 2007-2008, we passed the peak of conventional oil production. Never again, since this date, will the production of conventional oil be greater. Around 2018, we passed the peak in all-liquid oil production. This situation may seem to bode well for reducing carbon emissions. CO². However, we will see a deep dilemma on oil production (chapter Demography, oil, health and agriculture below).
2. The energy return rate (HEROES)
The association ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas), made up of former petroleum geophysicists who have been warning about peak oil for several decades. It is an international association with subgroups in several countries. In the ranks of the French branch, you will find a very active former French geophysicist: Jean Laherrère (see in particular his intervention on thinkerview). We also find a study entitled “ Peak oil and the transition to low-carbon energy: a net-zero energy perspective “. The diagram of this study roughly shows (yellow part at the top of the diagram) that it will be necessary to expend the energy of one barrel to extract three around 2030, one barrel to extract two around 1940 and one barrel to extract one around 1940. 2050.
Knowing that with a ratio of 1 to 1, we can just extract, a ratio of 1 to 2 allows us to extract and refine, and finally a ratio of 1 to 3 allows us to transport what has been refined. I’ll let you deduce the consequences for yourself…
3. Modeling of uranium resources
We cannot extract uranium resources without oil (bulldozers, trucks, processing into yellow cake, etc.). Without even counting this aspect, it is important to check the availability of uranium and in particular the peak of production just as we check the peaks of oil and gas. A study by a group of German scientists (2006) predicted a peak around 2020-2030 (this study – French version – is also referenced in Richard Heinberg’s book The End of Growth):
Plan :
4. Mineral resources
There is tension over mining resources which are both very polluting and in the process of being significantly depleted. On this subject, see the thinkerview interviews with Aurore Stéphant (Interview1, interview2). Note that you left for more than 6 hours of interviews but it’s worth it…
Demography, oil, health and agriculture
Let us consider the impacts of oil on society and mainly on agriculture and health.
Mechanization, with agricultural machines (tractors, combine harvesters, etc.) driven by oilhas profoundly transformed societies. While previously our ancestors had to work in the fields to produce their food, the arrival of oil allowed the construction of agricultural machines capable of replacing many field workers. Better production and yields, accentuated by the production of fertilizers from fossil fuels, then allowed the population to skyrocket. If we trace the curves of demography and oil production, the link becomes obvious. At the same time, famines resulting from poor harvests have eased and an ever-increasing portion of the population has been able to turn to jobs other than agriculture, notably medicine. Reductions in famine and increases in healthcare capacities have coordinated to support human demographics. Very quickly, the demographics exploded. There is no doubt that future oil peaks will considerably disrupt this artificial harmony.
As the oil production curve bends, demographics will follow. Future famines, accompanied by epidemics, are to be feared. Intuitively, we see here examples of interactions between resources and populations modeled by the system dynamics of the World3 model in the Meadows report. In addition, current policies with unnecessary major works, land artificialization, mistakes to compensate for past errors will accentuate the problems.
Let us cite pesticides as an example: To improve production and fight against pests, humans produce pesticides again and again. These destroy insects (collapse of more than 70% in a few years) and, consequently, their predators (collapse of field birds by more than 60%). To compensate for the collapse of pollinating insects, guess the pseudo solution provided. This pseudo solution uses extremely energy-intensive techniques (IArobots, etc.), energies whose disposition is about to collapse. Guaranteed collapse !
What do you give to the rich and the ultra-rich? ?
In a book, Hervé KEMPF explains how-the-rich-are-destroying-the-planet. Let’s go further: Let’s assume that some people give some credence to the themes we have just summarized. By schematizing strongly, two possibilities are available to them.
- The first consists of becoming united with the rest of the population: contributing fiscally to society and becoming real lobbyists towards radical transformation (allow me a little naivety very temporarily – rest assured, it won’t last). Have you heard of it ? (me not !)
- The second is to play as selfishly as possible. Reporterre explains in a first article how others are preparing for the future. Moreover, certain boxes help with this endeavor.
- But, beyond these two articles, allow me to put on the skin of one of these phenomena and try to think according to its own criteria. There is no doubt that, with the help of collapses, I will not be able to survive alone. I’ll need help. What could be better in these conditions than an army of true slaves. But, to hold these slaves, who risk revolting, I will also need an army of Cfighters of Riches Speculators !
- But, I am an incredible bad tongue. Nothing happens like that in our world. I’ll stop my ramblings there. The populace could believe it and rise up before it is too late (old biker than ever !).
