Absence of Paul Biya: what can the silence of the Cameroonian president mean?

In Cameroon, a country that Paul Biya has led for almost 42 years, debates are going well over his absence for more than a month. Some are worried, others believe that “the sphinx” is part of a “usual” political strategy.

Despite the exit of the civil cabinet of the Presidency of the Republic of Cameroon insisting on “the excellent state of health of the Head of State” or that of the Minister of Communication, René Emmanuel Sadi indicating a week ago that “the Head of State is doing well and will return to Cameroon in the coming days”, the rumors about the state of health of the Cameroonian president have not diminished in intensity.

Even the ban on the head of the Territorial Administration from holding media debates on the state of health of the Cameroonian Number 1 did not put an end to speculation.

The main person concerned, Paul Biya, even after the reaction of his party, the government and the civilian cabinet of the presidency, continues to maintain silence, thus maintaining the suspense.

The big question remains: Where is Paul Biya? The last appearance of the head of state, aged 91, dates back to the beginning of September, where he participated in the China-Africa cooperation forum (Focac) from September 4 to 6.

Since then, nothing. A mystery has been building around the personality for more than a month already. According to several Cameroonian analysts and experts interviewed by BBC Africa, Paul Biya has been used to this type of situation since he came to power in November 1982.

He is a leader who likes to give free rein to rumors about him, especially regarding his state of health, only to reappear in a sort of “triumphant return”, explains Haman Mana, the publishing director of a Cameroonian daily. .

In his doctoral thesis, the professor of sociology at the University of Yaoundé 1, Nga Ndongo, listed 11 public rumors about the Cameroonian president from 1983 to 2004. Each time, these rumors create a stir within the Cameroonian population .

“It’s not new. During his long reign, this is how he often proceeded, for various reasons,” recalls the Director of Publication of the Cameroonian daily “Le Jour”, Haman Mana, contacted by BBC Africa.

However, 2004 and 2024 are years when the great rumor about the death of Paul Biya echoed around the world and led to speculation as crazy as it was fueled, forcing the State apparatus to break its silence, although the person himself continues to keep his distance.

In recent weeks, social networks have killed him, the announcement of his death looping and becoming more persistent in comments and debates on site in Cameroon.

“President Biya is said to have died in Switzerland,” The African Independent and Cameroonlink published on the evening of June 3, 2004. It was the first cyber-rumor that set the whole of Cameroon ablaze at the time. The next day, June 4, what we called “information” was looping, but the authorized channels neither confirmed nor denied.

Until June 5, the rumor reached all towns in Cameroon, and even Cameroonian communities living abroad. Among these rumors, there are some who indicate having received confirmation from the first lady, Chantal Biya, that her husband suffered a heart attack in Yaoundé and was transported to a hospital in Geneva.

Others claimed that he died during the night from Friday to Saturday, even giving a precise time: 10 p.m. Some sources made it appear that the information came from the children’s nanny, for others, it was the aide-de-camp. Still others spoke of a bodyguard.

The rumor was growing, in the palaces in Africa and even at the Élysée, no one knew what was really happening. The brief press release from Jean-Marie Mebara Atangana, Secretary General at the Presidency, did not succeed in deflating the rumor. President Paul Biya himself had not made any sign of life. This is enough to reinforce the concerns.

Later in the week, a press release read on television indicates that Head of State Biya presents his condolences to American President George Bush for the death of Ronald Reagan. But where is this “ghost” who speaks and whom no one sees or listens to?

After several days of rumors about his death, on June 9, 2004, Paul Biya arrived at Yaoundé airport, a big smile on his face, asking journalists “do you believe in ghosts?”

Before adding “It seems that there are some who are interested in my funeral. Well, tell them that I will meet them in around twenty years”

And indeed, 20 years later, the same situation presents itself, plunging Cameroonians into questions, especially since the Head of State, since last week when his staff reacted, has not made any sign of life until then .

As in 2004, his government communicated, the civil cabinet of the presidency also, broadcasting telegrams, not bearing the signature of Mr. Biya, in which the Cameroonian leader congratulates “Taye Atske Selassie, following his election to the Supreme Magistracy of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia.

Two other telegrams congratulate the Spanish and Equatorial Guinean leaders for the celebration of their national holidays.

If the Ministry of Communication announces his imminent return, no date has been put forward by the Cameroonian authorities.

Paul Biya is used to the situation. We will not be surprised to see him again in public appearing as a providential man in front of the cameras, believes Haman Mana.

The leader frequently leaves the country’s capital and usually retreats to his native village in the southern forest or to Switzerland, where he stays for weeks at the Intercontinental Hotel in Geneva. From there, he continues to make the most sensitive political and strategic decisions.

On October 8, the civil cabinet affirmed that he “worked and freely went about his business in Geneva.”

“During COVID, he isolated himself for two months in his native village. But before, there were always these stays of 30 to 45 days in Switzerland. So much so that we talk about Cameroon’s “automatic pilot,” Cameroonian journalist Haman Mana tells us.

For him, “it seems to me that the current scenario is unforeseen. There was a fixed program with appointments made here and there, but which could not be respected. The only problem can only be capacity or incapacity.

Haman Mana emphasizes that the 91-year-old leader has so accustomed the whole of Cameroon and the political class in particular to his long absences that this no longer constitutes a risk for him. “It’s a machine that has always worked like this. By absences and silences, then returns and new beginnings,” says Mr. Mana.

However, he continues, the years have passed and time is no longer the ally it was for the head of state. “Each day that passes in this silence and this absence adds to the heaviness of the atmosphere, to the doubts and even to the fears. Confidence falls and sets in a kind of torpor, of fear.”

Paul Biya’s mandate ends in November 2025. There is a battle taking place in the seraglios of power for a possible succession of the 91-year-old man.

But he himself has not yet decided on his intention to run for another mandate or to leave power to a younger generation “when the time comes, I will tell you if I stay or if I return to the village”, said – he said a few years ago to a journalist who was trying to find out if he intended to run for the supreme office again in 2025.

For the moment, he is letting rumors spread about his intentions regarding the 2025 election. Some believe that he could be replaced by his henchmen, notably the Secretary General of the Presidency Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh, or René Sadi or even Laurent Esso.

But that’s without the leader’s supporters who are putting pressure on him to run again and remain at the head of the country.

Some supporters do not rule out the possibility that he will be replaced by his son, Franck Biya, a businessman who has so far not indicated his intention to run for the highest office in Cameroon.

As for the opposition, “no one can say with conviction whether it has the freedom to reverse the situation” underlines Haman Mana.

“We have had substantial registrations for several months. But the sincerity of the elections and their result is not guaranteed by the body in charge. But if it is a tide, I do not see how the authorities could proceed,” indicates the director of the Cameroonian daily “Le Jour”.